Happy Monday folks!
A topsy-turvy April in the making. The front half (1-15 April) ended up being the coldest in 3 years for the U.S. overall (-0.6F below average), driest in 4 years (10% below average) but the most snow in 3 years (13% above average). There were widespread hard freezes early in the month with the Northeast - Middle Atlantic hardest hit with major crop losses for fruit trees. The Northeast had the worst weather with the front half of the month trending the coldest in over 25 years and snowiest in 9 years.
Now the 2nd half of April looks to be the hottest in 25+ years for the U.S. as a whole (+3.2F above average), #1 wettest in 25+ years (46% above average) and the most snow in 3 years - most of that has already fallen in the Rocky Mountains this past weekend where as much as 5 feet fell in the higher elevations of Colorado.
La Nina update - see our latest blog as our confidence on a strong to potentially very strong La Nina is very high. As you recall, last year we said we'd go into a moderate to strong La Nina this Summer and now that appears 100% certain. NOAA, Australian Met Office say 50% but that's high confidence for government agencies. ha But it is when they typically give forecasts with 30% to 40% type confidence.
For our farmer clients we hope the 7% rally in Corn has you getting excited that weather is going to play a major role in a major rally later in June when Brazil's train wreck Safrinha crop comes in way below expectations and then bigger rally in July - August when the U.S. suffers a similar scorching hot/dry Summer. Brazil is now suffering through a 3rd straight week of the hottest conditions in 25+ years, some areas hottest in 121 years with very dry conditions right in the middle of silking and pollination - not good for yields but great for much needed higher prices.
Some of the team here at weathertrends360 spent Friday helping a local farmer get ready for the potentially devastating impacts this La Nina is going to have on the Ag industry this season by installing weather sensors (soil moisture, soil temps, left wetness, etc.) in his field with new center pivot irrigation. Farmer Danny is one of few farmers here in PA with an irrigation system and this will be the year he needs it! See our blog.
Have a great week folks! - Capt Kirk out.