Happy Monday folks! :)

Last week (12-18 Sept): The U.S. overall was the warmest in 11 years, 5th warmest of the past 25 years (2.1F above average) with 10% below average national rainfall (11th driest of the past 25 years). The highlight was weak Tropical Storm Julia impacting the Southeast Coastal states and the first frost for parts of the Upper Midwest and higher elevations in New England. More excessive rainfall and some flooding for Eastern Nebraska, Northeast Kansas with widespread 2-8" totals.

This week (19-25 Sept): For the U.S. overall it's very warm trending warmest in 25+ years (+4.7 above average). Rainfall remains 17% below average nationally (9th driest of the past 25 years). The remnants of Hurricane Paine in the Eastern Pacific Ocean could bring some flooding rains to Southern California and Arizona early this week.

Monday 2

Tropical Storm Karl in the Central Atlantic not likely to impact the U.S. but could impact Bermuda as a hurricane Saturday. The system behind Karl is likely to become T.S. Lisa (13th system of the season, 12th named storm of the season which is well above average to date). Lisa is likely to remain a fish storm but system are coming off Africa every other day so a lot of hurricane season left. The peak season is typically 20 August - 20 October but extends into the end of November. The official end to Summer arrives 10:21am EDT on Thursday 22 September (Autumnal Equinox). See our latest blog for the Fall foliage outlook. Kind of dull this year in light of drought in spots and too wet in others.

Monday 1

Next week (26 Sept - 2 Oct): A stronger cold front looks to dive into the Central U.S. bringing the first killing freezes to the Northern Rocky Mountains and extreme Northern Plains. This is about a week early for a killing freeze in Montana. Nationally temperatures trend the coldest in 7 years of the last week of September (-0.5F below average) with the 2nd wettest conditions in 25 years (72% above average) for the U.S. overall. More snowfall likely for the Northern Rocky Mountains.

Have a great week! - Capt Kirk out.