Happy hump day Wednesday.  We can see the weekend from here. :)

March is just about in the history books and the month overall will trend:

  1. 2nd warmest in 121 years (thank you El Nino) and the warmest since 2012.

  2. Rainfall was the most since 1998 (the last record strong El Nino) and 19% above average for the U.S. overall.  Nationally +4.7F above average for 260 major cities.

  3. Snowfall was the 3rd least in 25+ years and 46% below average.


April won't be as extremely warm with the month overall likely to be above average but coolest in 3 years, still wet but drier than last year but more snow early in the month.  The Northeast is actually the coolest in 9 years with a very cold and even snowy start (interior elevations) to the month with a hard freeze next week likely to negatively impact fruit trees, vineyards and berries in the Great Lakes into New Jersey since this vegetation is out about 3-4 weeks too early.  The first week of April in the Northeast will be the 2nd coldest in 14 years and most snowfall in 9 years.  Could even see some flurries in the NYC area.  Out West it will go from cold/snowy here at the end of March in the Central Rockies to 60s next week.

The Pacific Ocean is showing a classic signature that La Nina is right around the corner.  The sub-surface water temperatures are now below normal all across the Pacific and that cooler water is just about to crack the surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean in the next 30-60 days.  Winds have gone from strong El Nino westerly winds in the Eastern Pacific (January) to Easterly winds now - again classic signature the pattern is changing as we speak.  Even out in the Western Pacific near Australia the westerly winds have returned signalling an end to El Nino.

Sets the stage for a coolish middle Spring here in the Eastern U.S. but then turning scorching hot/dry by late June - August with a severe heat-wave and drought for much of the Central and Eastern U.S.  The Deep South likely to be warm, humid and wet with hurricane threats by July and then potentially a parade of storms August - October with an end to the 10+ year hurricane drought in the U.S.!  Gulf Coast and Florida highest risk areas, Northeast not so much as we'll be under a dominating high pressure system much of Summer - again classic La Nina signature.

- Capt Kirk out.