We sure hope you're preparing for a scorching hot Summer with a drought more widespread than 2012 and yes a big rally coming for corn prices. If you're in the heart of the Corn Belt from Nebraska to Pennsylvania it would be a good idea to have crop insurance this year and even in the Deep South the late Summer-Fall hurricane season is likely to be equally devastating. Yes soil moisture levels right now are OK...let's talk around July 4th when they'll be anything but for the Western half of the Corn Belt.
El Nino is collapsing at warp speed and nearly every major El Nino transitions to moderate to strong La Nina within a year and this year will be no different. We don't need to hear the word La Nina is here as the trend already tells us that a scorching hot/dry Summer is on the way for many in the Corn Belt. Year-to-date rainfall in the Corn Belt is the 2nd least in 25+ years and least in 13 years, similar to last year. But last year was an emerging epic El Nino year so don't expect the rains to materialize this Summer - they won't!
Year-to-date rainfall compared to the past 25 years.
If you saw ourSeeds of Success Episode 1issued last fall you saw our year-ahead forecast for the Corn Belt as a whole which warned of a top 5 hottest Summer in 121 years and at least the driest since 2012, 2nd least in a decade. It's very likely this forecast is even too optimistic when it comes to core late June - August rainfall.
The government computer models are not usually all that accurate but the better ones are all signaling moderate to even strong La Nina by Summer. Again, the trend is just as important as the index value and the trend is collapsing quickly.
When the government says 50% to 60% chance of La Nina by Summer that's a very likely forecast in their world of predictions.
We're not huge believers in analog weather forecasting technology but when 10 of 12 years all suggest scorching heat and drought in July and August based on comparable years back to 1954 you can't argue there's a a lot of RISK IN 2016. Plus wt360 expects this to be a 2-year drought so 2016 is just the start!
Again, not a fan of NOAA outlooks but even they agree on the heat and dryness bulls-eye which of course is way under done.
And if all that wasn't enough we can throw in an epic hurricane season in the making more similar to 1998 and 2005. This will have further impacts for Deep South crops that may escape drought but won't escape hurricane damage risks like they haven't seen in 11 years (see our Seeds of Success Episode 3 for more details).
So, as we advised the 1,000+ farmers that use our year-ahead outlooks...get the crop insurance...very likely you'll need it this year. We happily take calls fromany farmer, even if you're not a client so don't hesitate to reach out to us at 610-807-0118.
God Bless you and let's hope for the best. - Capt Kirk out.