Captain's Log 11 Jan '21 Mild & Dry...But Some Cold Coming

Captain's Log

Happy Monday! :)

A lot of buzz about the Polar Vortex splitting up, but the past couple weeks that's brought the Arctic cold to China, Russia and Europe, but not in the U.S....yet. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

11 jan log 1

Last week (3-9 January) across the world shows the really cold spots across Russia and China but coast-to-coast warmer than average conditions across North America. The U.S. trended 2.3F colder than last year, coolest in 3 years but still 12th warmest of the past 35 years and above average. Very dry with 62% less rainfall than last year, driest in 3 years and 8th driest in 35 years. Snowfall the least in 35 years trending 70% less than last year. India was the warmest in 35+ years, Canada warmest in 14 years, Australia coldest in 16 years, China coldest in 8 years, Russia and Brazil the coolest in 5 years and Europe the coldest in 4 years.

11 jan log 2

U.S. Winter to date trends (1 Dec - 11 Jan) show temperatures trending 1.9F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years but still 10th warmest of the past 35 years and 1.9F above average. 25% drier than last year, driest in 3 years and 14th driest of the past 35 years or about 9% below average nationally. Snowfall 2% more than last year, most in 3 years but still 12th least in 35 years and 26% below average. Season to date snowfall across the U.S. (1 Sep - 11 Jan) is even less trending 15% less than last year and 17% below average nationally.

11 jan log 3

The good news is that Flu across the U.S. remains at near historic lows, a wholesale change from the huge Type B surge last year that had the entire country in widespread flu conditions. COVID trends are generally trending down from the November spike in deaths and hospitalizations, of course some local hot spots.

11 jan log 4

This week (11-17 January) trends just a tad cooler than last year but still 7th warmest of the past 35+ years with above average national temperatures. The South and Southeast continue to trend much colder than this time last year benefiting cold Winter seasonal merchandise sales. 72% less rain than last year and driest in 12 years across the U.S. This continues to show a bigger drought developing for the U.S. with the driest conditions in 8 years. Snowfall 62% less than last year and least in 4 years, 6th least in 35+ years.

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The 6-day snowfall outlook shows the Deep South snow event making a lot of kids and adults happy this morning from East Texas to Mississippi. Some moderate snow across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes as we approach the weekend ahead.

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Next Week (18-24 January) will start off very mild for much of the U.S., but signs of some change with colder weather very late in the period. For the week overall, the U.S. trends 1.1F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 13th warmest of the past 35 years with above average temperatures. The South and Upper Midwest show the most improved trends for Winter seasonal merchandise clearance sales. Still dry with 71% less precipitation vs last year, driest in 7 years and 5th driest in 35 years. A common moderate La Nina/-PDO signature. Snowfall still 23% less than last year, least in 3 years and 16th least in 35+ years, below average. As the Arctic air invades late in the period, heavier snowfall likely around the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and interior Northeast.

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The 2-week world outlook (11-24 January) shows Western Russia becoming the big winner for the Polar Vortex with frigid conditions while China warms up. Canada will start off with much above average temperatures, but turning much colder late next week with a glancing shot of the Polar Vortex - likely to be transient.

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We will be speaking with the Allergy & Asthma Network tomorrow afternoon discussing our Spring outlook which shows a lot of suffering due to much warmer and drier weather. This suspends pollens and pollution in the air longer resulting in more suffering; we expect the peak season in early May to be the worst in 9 years!

11 jan log 9

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.