Captain's Log 18 Jan '21 Mild & Dry for now

Captain's Log

Happy MLK Jr. Monday! :)



A recap of the weather around the world last week shows some pretty historic flip flops. As an example, Canada went from the coldest in 35 years this time last year to the warmest in 35 years this year. Russia went the other way going from near record warmth last year to the coldest in 34 years this year. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



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Here in the U.S., last week (10-16 January) trended 0.9F cooler than last year but still 11th warmest of the past 35+ years (above average). Rainfall was the least in 7 years, 8th least in 35 years trending 51% drier than last year (much below average). Snowfall was even less trending 69% less than a year ago, least in 8 years and 8th least in 35 years (much below average) for the nation as a whole.

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Dry to drought phases remain high with 62% of the U.S. on the dry side, way up over last year's near historic lows when only 23% of the country was dry. Average this time of year is about 45% of the country in dry phases. WTI expects this dry cycle to continue well into 2021 for the U.S. and many other areas around the world.

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U.S. Season-to-date snowfall is trending the least in 5 years and 9th least of the past 35 years. National snowfall for the 1 September - 17 January period is trending 20% below average and 22% less than last year.

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This week (18-24 January) remains on the mild side in the U.S. with the nation trending 2.4F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years for this middle January period and 11th warmest of the past 35 years. Still on the dry side, we can thank La Nina for that, with 69% less rainfall vs last year, driest in 7 years and 11th driest of the past 35 years. Snowfall about 25% less than a year ago, least in 3 years and 16th least of the past 35 years.

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The Polar Vortex 14 day animation continues to show the vortex pretty much over Russia and Siberia where it belongs this time of year, but a little piece MIGHT spin off late next week and head toward Canada and the U.S. Not a full onslaught of the vortex here in the U.S. but certainly some cooler and snowier trends to help clear out Winter seasonal merchandise.

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Next week (25-31 January) shows the cooler trends, but this may be a bit overdone contingent upon a sliver of the vortex heading our way. But overall a cooler, wetter, snowier week for the U.S. and possibly the last good chance to clear out Winter seasonal categories.

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The 2-week World outlook (18-31 January) shows the heart of the cold across Siberia with some cooling across Western Canada.

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Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out