Captain's Log 21 Dec '20 Another Christmas Eve Rain/Snow Storm!

Captain's Log

Happy 1st Monday of Winter! :) It officially arrived 5:02am EST today.

And if you like all things in the night sky, you'll want to look Southwest just after sunset to see a rare event with a Saturn-Jupiter conjunction! They will appear the closest in 800 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW

21 dec log 1

The big Nor'easter proved that physics based meteorology has a long way to go, even one day out. While the track wasn't too far off, the band of heaviest snow was by 100 miles less than a day out. The 40"+ totals fell in areas that just a day or two prior indicated 2-4". But it was indeed an historic snow storm impacting 10s of millions here in December.

21 dec log 2

A lot of that snow will hang on for Christmas despite a warmer rain storm Christmas Eve in the East. The Christmas with the most snow on the ground was back in 2009 when 63% of the U.S. had snow, the least was in 2003 when only 21% had snow, average over recent history is 38%. Currently only 26% of the U.S. has snow on the ground, but we'll likely get close to average with the midweek storm.

21 dec log 3

One of the big drivers this Winter is going to be the moderate La Niña event that is likely to peak this Winter before gradually weakening. The weather pattern will be impacted for months to come even as it decays with a dry 2021 ahead for many.

21 dec log 4

This time last year the U.S. was having a widespread Type B Flu outbreak with near historic high Flu conditions (not COVID). This year Flu is near historic lows, so the good news is we're only combating one virus, not two. Even on the COVID front, trends are down according to CDC, so maybe the end is near as we go into 2021.

21 dec log 5

Last week (13-19 December) across the world show many areas trending colder than last year, a plus for Winter seasonal merchandise sales. The U.S. was 0.4F colder than last year and coldest in 4 years, 21% drier than last year but 65% more snowfall. Canada, India and Brazil were all a bit warmer; Europe, Russia, China and Australia quite a bit colder. China was the coldest in 15 years with widespread cold.

21 dec log 6

This week (21-27 December) across the U.S. shows considerably colder and snowier conditions than last year, a plus for Winter seasonal merchandise and on-line sales. Recall that every 1F colder YOY there is a 3% increase in apparel sales, 5% increase in coat sales and heating consumption and 10% increase in portable heater sales. That translates to a 15% increase in apparel sales, 27% for coats and your electric bill and 53% for heaters. While snowfall is up 352% over last year's very low totals, it's still generally below average despite the Christmas Eve - Christmas Day storm.

21 dec log 7

The 6-day snowfall outlook shows a warmer Christmas Eve heavy rain event along the East Coast, even into New England but ending as snow Christmas Day. Snow will be heaviest around the Great Lakes and the highest terrain in New England this go around.

21 dec log 8

Next week (28 Dec - 3 Jan) shows more colder trends YOY with the nation trending 6.5F colder than last year and coldest in 3 years. A drier pattern, driest in 3 years with below average national rainfall. Snowfall is again up a bit and most in 3 years. This will be a good Winter clearance opportunity for seasonal merchandise.

21 dec log 9

Weather Trends has always been a very charitable organization donating over $200,000 a year to charities, but it's easy to write checks, so it was great to see wt360 employees take it upon themselves to have a big impact on 6 children this Christmas. They decided to pick a couple families that were struggling this year and likely wouldn't have gifts for their children and bring some joy. So they bought the kids dozens of cool presents, including a bike, wrapped them, made dozens of amazing cookies and tonight they'll get delivered to bring some BIG SMILES. :) I'd like to send a big THANK YOU to the following employees for all their help here.

21 dec log 10

Gift purchases: Christine, Krissy, Pam, Rebecca, Jon, Evan, John, Ed, Billy, Jack, Jerl, Matt, Bruce; Wrapping crew: Christine and Lynn; Cookie making: Christine and Delivery crew: Christine, Billy and Bill. Tis the season of giving and spreading joy to others, especially those in need. To whom much is given...much is expected.

We hope you have a wonderful Christmas and holiday season. We are very thankful for our clients, fans and colleagues who put their trust with Weather Trends! THANK YOU.

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- Captain Kirk out.