Captain's Log Nov 2020: Cool Weather Developing

Happy Monday! :)

Last week (22-28 November) world trends vs last year on a retail calendar show the U.S. trending warmest in 8 years, not good for Fall seasonal merchandise category sales. In fact, November will end up 7F warmer than last year's very cold month and 3rd warmest in 35 years. A wholesale change from the past couple years when Q4 started off very cold and snowy across the U.S. Rainfall was the least in 3 years across the U.S. while snowfall was down a whopping 88% and least in 3 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW



Canada warmed a bit, particular in Western Canada, Europe was a a bit cooler than last year, a plus for seasonal merchandise sales. Russia was the warmest in 7 years, China 1.8F warmer than last year and Australia was the warmest in 23 years as they get close to Summer. The cooler spots were across India and Brazil.



This week (30 November - 6 December) finally shows a cooler trend across the U.S. and the coolest start to the month in 9 years! This is a big plus after such a warm November. Rainfall up a bit over last year and 10th wettest of the past 35 years, but snowfall still down 68% vs a year ago despite the season's first heavier snowfall in the Great Lakes early this week. The very cold weather will actually dive so deep into the South, including Florida, that much of this cold air will never make it into the Northeast where conditions will remain warmer than average and much warmer than last year.



The 6-day snowfall outlook shows the heavier snow early this week in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. See video for larger images.



Next week (7-13 December) moderates a bit, but still trending cooler than last year, coolest in 9 years but 18th warmest of the past 35 years, about average. Rainfall is the least in 3 years, below average, but snowfall may actually trend above average and most in 3 years with some Lake Effect snow and higher elevation snow for New England and the Appalachians.



The weather trends were obviously not favorable for seasonal merchandise sales in the U.S. with November trending 3rd warmest of the past 35 years, warmest in 4 years coming off back-to-back very cold and snowy months the past couple years. Applying the nearly 7F warmer temperatures to our Power of 1 Degree technology, downward trends in seasonal sales were significant. Every 1F warmer there is a 3% decrease in cold weather apparel, so a 21% decline in sales just due to weather. The good news is consumers certainly saved about 35% on heating consumption, so there will be more discretionary income going into this year's holiday shopping season. December last year was the 3rd warmest in over 35 years, so while the trends ahead look more favorable, this isn't a super cold December, but certainly better than November. January last year was the warmest in 14 years, so cooler trends YOY will help.



The World 2-week aggregate forecast (30 Nov - 13 Dec) shows a big warm up across Canada with much cooler conditions in the Southern U.S. Europe will also be more favorable for early Winter merchandise. Australia remains very hot for the start of their Summer season down under.

For those of you that like countdowns...this one might scare you...only 24 days 14 hours 10 minutes and 3 seconds until Christmas! And 1 December is the start of the meteorological Winter (1 Dec - 28 Feb).



Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.