Captain's Log 5 April '21 Wholesale Change with Much Warmer April

Captain's Log

Happy Monday! :)



The 5-week retail calendar March (28 Feb - 3 Apr) is in the history books and it was pretty good for seasonal merchandise sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

5 apr 21 log 1

The U.S. trended -0.9F colder than last year's very hot March, but still 7th warmest of the past 36 years with above average national temperatures. Rainfall was 5% less than last year and about average, while snowfall was down 27% and the least in 36 years. Generally positive trends for seasonal merchandise sales. Canada was the warmest in 11 years, China and India the warmest in 3 years, Australia a bit warmer than LY while Brazil was the coldest in 36+ years, Europe and Russia coldest in 3 years. This time of year warmer and drier weather is better for overall seasonal merchandise sales.

5 apr 21 log 2

Last week (28 March - 3 April) was 1F colder than last year in the U.S. and coldest in 3 years, 16th coldest of the past 36 years (below average). There were many record cold temperatures Friday and Saturday in the East with frost and hard freezes in the Southeast. Rainfall was up 7% over LY but still 13th least in 36 years (below average). Snowfall was 74% less than a year ago and least in 9 years, 4th least in 36 years, much below average.

5 apr 21 log 3

Dry to Drought phases remains at an 8 year high for this point in the year with 63% of the country in dry to drought phases vs only 25% this time last year. This is likely to be a common theme in 2021 with expanding dry conditions.

5 apr 21 log 4

Another thing that's up is inflation, don't tell the government that, but the things you and I buy are way up over last year. Gasoline prices are up +49% vs last year, Corn prices up +83%, Beef up +91% and Lumber up +332%. This will weigh on consumer spending in the year ahead.

5 apr 21 log 5

This week (5-11 April) shows a major Spring surge with national temperatures trending +4.4F warmer than last year and the warmest in 36 years. Demand for seasonal merchandise will be way up over LY. Rainfall is +27% more than last year, 9th wettest in 36 years, but snowfall is again at 36 years lows. Some severe weather possible in the Central U.S. and the Southeast, not as widespread as recent events. Despite two major tornadic outbreaks in March, season-to-date tornadic activity is still 10% less than last year and 12% below average.

5 apr 21 log 6

Next week (12-18 April) shows another big surge in temperatures trending +7.9F warmer than last year's very cold conditions, warmest in 4 years and 11th warmest of the past 36 years for the U.S. overall. Rainfall looks light trending 49% less than last year and least in 13 years, 10th driest in 36 years. Snowfall the least in 36+ years.

5 april 2021 capts log 7

The current cycles and statistics all suggest another epic hurricane season in 2021 with 23-25 named storms (last year a record 30). Our highest risk area this year is Florida with the potential for several land falling hurricanes, and a major hurricane as well. Last year Louisiana was the recipient of 5 land falling systems, this year the track looks closer to Florida with potentially the 3rd most active season in 165 years of records.

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- Captain Kirk out