Captain's Log 9 Nov '20 Record Warm November Eastern U.S.

Captain's Log

Happy Monday! :)



Last week (1-7 November) across the World showed the Northern Hemisphere generally warming much warmer than last year, while the Southern Hemisphere was trending colder than a year ago. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

9 Nov log 1

Here in the U.S. it was 9.4F warmer than last year and 3rd warmest of the past 35+ years with much above average national temperatures. 40% drier than last year making it the driest in 11 years with snowfall 78% less than a year ago, least in 4 years. These are great trends for outdoor construction, home center sales and overall GDP, obviously not so good for cold Fall seasonal merchandise. Russia was the warmest in 10 years, China warmest in 9, Canada warmest in 4, India warmest in 3 while Brazil was the coolest in 9 years, Europe coolest in 4.

9 Nov log 2

Quantifying these trends with WTI's Power of 1 Degree technology we find some big downward trends for cold seasonal merchandise. Items like coffee, flu medicine, jeans all likely had soft sales down 19% due to weather. Boots, apparel, bird seed and hunting jackets likely off 28%, with more volatile categories like bird seed, mouse traps and auto batteries off 66% vs a year ago. The good news, heating demand/consumption is way down from last year's very cold start to November.

9 Nov log 3

Tropical Storm ETA (#29) plagued south Florida with heavy rain and winds Sunday and now likely to become a hurricane as it meanders in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this week. This could very likely make landfall again later this week, so it needs to be watched.

9 Nov log 4

This week (9-15 November) across the U.S. shows national temperatures trending a whopping 12.9F warmer than last year making this the warmest 2nd week of November in 21 years, 2nd warmest in 35 years for the nation as a whole. The West is the cold wintry spot. Rainfall up with the influence of the tropical threat in the East, 2nd wettest in 35+ years while snowfall is the least in 3 years and below average, but heaviest in the Northern Rocky Mountains.

9 Nov log 5

Snowfall returns to the Northwest quarter of the country, a common La Nina like pattern for the Winter ahead. Briefly colder in the Northeast this weekend before temperatures rebound again next week across much of the U.S.

9 Nov log 6

Don't forget this Wednesday is Veteran's Day, God Bless the 7% of the U.S. population that served our country.

9 Nov log 7

Next week (16-22 November) show the cold abating in the Central U.S. and retreating to the Northwest. For the U.S. overall, temperatures look to trend some 10F warmer than last year making it the warmest in 35+ years! Wettest in 5, but snowfall the least in 3 years.

9 Nov log 8

The 2-week aggregate world outlook (9-22 November) shows the Southeast U.S. warm, the Northwest cold while much of the Northern Hemisphere trends on the warm side. The Southern Hemisphere across Brazil and Africa are unusually cool.

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God Bless our farmers, they are busy wrapping up the 2020 harvest season...no farmers...no food! Our local farmer was very kind to stop his big combine harvester and say hello to the flag waving little Angelina Kirk. She was SO EXCITED and yes she has a Case tractor toy. :)

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out