July2016 is in the history books and it was a hot month here in the U.S. Overall the nation trended the 4th hottest July of the past 25+ years with national temperatures +1.5F above average. The number of hot 90F days was up 20% above average and the 3rd most in 25 years. National rainfall was in the middle of the pack trending 12th driest of the past 25 years or exactly average. The major weather event was the record breaking heat-wave the 21st-26th that brought widespread 95 to 110F heat to the Eastern half of the country from the Plains to the Northeast. After an active start to the hurricane season through June, there were no named storms in July. There were about 87 reported tornadoes which is below the 3-year average of 91 and much less than last year's 115.
THIS WEEK we start off with another building 4-day heat-wave primarily for the Central U.S. with 90F-100F temps. Nationally this first week of August is the hottest in 4 years. National rainfall is near average and similar to the past couple years. A cool front will push the heat-dome down toward the weekend for a couple day cool down. Very likely we get our 5th named storm of the season (Earl) that should stay in the Caribbean before making landfall in Cancun Mexico area.
NEXT WEEK the heat will again rebuild in the Central U.S. with the 2nd week of August the hottest in 6 years but potentially very wet. Definitely need to watch the tropics as models show several storms/hurricanes possible as the systems coming off Africa begin to flare up along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone as they head in the general direction of the U.S. The tropical ocean temperatures are much above normal as is the Gulf of Mexico so development can happen very quickly this time of year. Models hint at a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico around the 12th-15th (way out there) but something to watch closely. Mid-August is typically the time tropical activity rapidly increases and this year looks like that will be the case.
West Pacific Tropics also heating up with Hong Kong getting hit by a cat 1 typhoon Nida making landfall today bringing more flooding rains to flood ravaged South China. China looks to have the wettest first two weeks of August on record so their 2nd worst weather disaster on record will get worse. Models show at least 5 other tropical systems developing in the West Pacific over the next couple weeks so they'll have a lot to dodge.
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Have a great week folks! - Capt Kirk out.