1 Nov '25 wt360 Captain Kirk Weather Brief - Better Start to Q4 vs Last Year
Captain's Log
1 November '25: Happy Saturday! :)
It's time to Fall Back 1 hour tonight 2 November Sunday 2am as Daylight Savings Times ends. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
We've turned our weekend blog and video into a FREE email subscription service and sign up is super easy - link here: https://www.weathertrends360.com/Newsletter/Captains-Log/Subscribe
In addition to discussing the past week U.S. and World weather trends, the U.S. and World 2-week forecast, breaking weather events each week, we'll start each video with some examples of how our YEAR-AHEAD Power of 1 Degree® technology helps retailers, seasonal suppliers, financial services, 12 sectors overall plan a year out anywhere on Earth.
Today's example is Coffee consumption. Every 1 degree colder year-over-year there is a 2% increase in coffee consumption or sales, 10F colder 20% increase. There is a downside that is not always linear, but in this case 10F warmer is a 20% decline in consumption. As humans, we react to our environment with the weather being one big factor in our buying behavior.
This past week in Japan it was the coldest in 7 years and 95% drier than the previous years which increase store traffic and high demand for hot coffee. Nagasaki, Japan as an example suggested a 21% increase in YOY coffee consumption due to the much colder weather. This was the highest coffee index in 23 years!
For our Fortune 500 clients, we convert this into a year-ahead weekly sales forecast across millions of geographies, stores, DCs, etc. to help them better plan how much to buy or make, when to promote or advertise in the optimal weather, labor scheduling to meet high demand periods, energy budgeting and more. This example shows the Winter (Nov - Mar) forecast and the weekly coffee index. January is the stronger peak selling month trending better than last year, but overall a shorter condensed season with lower demand in November, February and March.
To help any small or larger company, we create simple daily email PDF reports with weather and coffee trends for today, this week, next week and year-ahead by week. This CoffeeCast® report shows Nagasaki, Japan. Sign up is easy on our small business PLANS PAGE.
Last week (26 Oct - 1 Nov) across the World was a strong end to Q3 for many retailers and suppliers with favorable weather trends in the U.S., U.K., Europe and Asia. This time of year, colder/wetter weather year-over-year drives higher demand for Fall seasonal merchandise. The U.S. was a very significant -6.5F colder than last year, coldest in 5 years and 12th coldest in 40 years (below average) with the Eastern half of the U.S. exceptional. Cold days below 32F were up +6%, most in 6 years and 21st least in 40 years (average), while national rainfall was up +64%, wettest in 4 years and 12th wettest in 40 years. Europe was the coldest in 4 years, U.K. coldest in 6 years benefiting those areas as well.
Severe weather to date across the U.S. shows Tornadoes down -12% vs last year, hail up +1% vs last year and wind cases up +2% vs a year ago.
Only a month left in the 2025 hurricane season, but it ended with a bang - CAT 5 Melissa, the 3rd strongest hurricane in the Atlantic every recorded.
Sadly, this was a direct hit for Western Jamaica. Season to date summaries show the season will end above average for major hurricanes and overall cyclone energy with 13 named storms to date. The weather pattern this year clearly favored the East Coast to Bermuda corridor vs last year when the Gulf was more impacted.
U.S. cold 32F days are up +11% vs last year but still 6th least in 40 years, while the U.S. snowfall index is down -50% and #1 least in 40 years.
This week (2-8 Nov) kicks off Q4 and while there is some moderation, it's still -2.4F cooler than last year with 93% less snow and 62% less rain. This will help store traffic as we get closer to the Holiday shopping season. The Eastern half of the U.S. remains much colder than last year, while the West is much warmer. Very heavy rain in the Pacific Northwest will dampen store traffic but benefit storm related merchandise.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (1-6 Nov) shows the season's first snows for New England, but national snowfall down -90% vs the same period last year and least in 9 years.
Next week (9-15 Nov) show the U.S. again trending -1.3F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years but still 14th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall is similar to last year but heavier in the Midwest-Northeast and again in the Pacific Northwest where flooding is very possible.
The World (2-15 Nov) Temperature outlook shows the U.S., U.K. and Europe moderating a bit from the recent cold conditions.
The World (2-15 Nov) Precipitation outlook shows a wetter pattern for the drought areas of the Northeast U.S., wet across the U.K. but very dry across Europe benefiting store traffic. Very wet across Brazil's crop growing regions which is very likely going to lead to another record Corn/Soybean crop which will lower these commodity prices by Spring 2026.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
It's time to Fall Back 1 hour tonight 2 November Sunday 2am as Daylight Savings Times ends. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
We've turned our weekend blog and video into a FREE email subscription service and sign up is super easy - link here: https://www.weathertrends360.com/Newsletter/Captains-Log/Subscribe
In addition to discussing the past week U.S. and World weather trends, the U.S. and World 2-week forecast, breaking weather events each week, we'll start each video with some examples of how our YEAR-AHEAD Power of 1 Degree® technology helps retailers, seasonal suppliers, financial services, 12 sectors overall plan a year out anywhere on Earth.
Today's example is Coffee consumption. Every 1 degree colder year-over-year there is a 2% increase in coffee consumption or sales, 10F colder 20% increase. There is a downside that is not always linear, but in this case 10F warmer is a 20% decline in consumption. As humans, we react to our environment with the weather being one big factor in our buying behavior.
This past week in Japan it was the coldest in 7 years and 95% drier than the previous years which increase store traffic and high demand for hot coffee. Nagasaki, Japan as an example suggested a 21% increase in YOY coffee consumption due to the much colder weather. This was the highest coffee index in 23 years!
For our Fortune 500 clients, we convert this into a year-ahead weekly sales forecast across millions of geographies, stores, DCs, etc. to help them better plan how much to buy or make, when to promote or advertise in the optimal weather, labor scheduling to meet high demand periods, energy budgeting and more. This example shows the Winter (Nov - Mar) forecast and the weekly coffee index. January is the stronger peak selling month trending better than last year, but overall a shorter condensed season with lower demand in November, February and March.
To help any small or larger company, we create simple daily email PDF reports with weather and coffee trends for today, this week, next week and year-ahead by week. This CoffeeCast® report shows Nagasaki, Japan. Sign up is easy on our small business PLANS PAGE.
Last week (26 Oct - 1 Nov) across the World was a strong end to Q3 for many retailers and suppliers with favorable weather trends in the U.S., U.K., Europe and Asia. This time of year, colder/wetter weather year-over-year drives higher demand for Fall seasonal merchandise. The U.S. was a very significant -6.5F colder than last year, coldest in 5 years and 12th coldest in 40 years (below average) with the Eastern half of the U.S. exceptional. Cold days below 32F were up +6%, most in 6 years and 21st least in 40 years (average), while national rainfall was up +64%, wettest in 4 years and 12th wettest in 40 years. Europe was the coldest in 4 years, U.K. coldest in 6 years benefiting those areas as well.
Severe weather to date across the U.S. shows Tornadoes down -12% vs last year, hail up +1% vs last year and wind cases up +2% vs a year ago.
Only a month left in the 2025 hurricane season, but it ended with a bang - CAT 5 Melissa, the 3rd strongest hurricane in the Atlantic every recorded.
Sadly, this was a direct hit for Western Jamaica. Season to date summaries show the season will end above average for major hurricanes and overall cyclone energy with 13 named storms to date. The weather pattern this year clearly favored the East Coast to Bermuda corridor vs last year when the Gulf was more impacted.
U.S. cold 32F days are up +11% vs last year but still 6th least in 40 years, while the U.S. snowfall index is down -50% and #1 least in 40 years.
This week (2-8 Nov) kicks off Q4 and while there is some moderation, it's still -2.4F cooler than last year with 93% less snow and 62% less rain. This will help store traffic as we get closer to the Holiday shopping season. The Eastern half of the U.S. remains much colder than last year, while the West is much warmer. Very heavy rain in the Pacific Northwest will dampen store traffic but benefit storm related merchandise.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (1-6 Nov) shows the season's first snows for New England, but national snowfall down -90% vs the same period last year and least in 9 years.
Next week (9-15 Nov) show the U.S. again trending -1.3F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years but still 14th warmest of the past 40 years. Rainfall is similar to last year but heavier in the Midwest-Northeast and again in the Pacific Northwest where flooding is very possible.
The World (2-15 Nov) Temperature outlook shows the U.S., U.K. and Europe moderating a bit from the recent cold conditions.
The World (2-15 Nov) Precipitation outlook shows a wetter pattern for the drought areas of the Northeast U.S., wet across the U.K. but very dry across Europe benefiting store traffic. Very wet across Brazil's crop growing regions which is very likely going to lead to another record Corn/Soybean crop which will lower these commodity prices by Spring 2026.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)