22 Nov '25 wt360 Weather Brief - Stormy Pattern Ahead - Polar Vortex Early December
Captain's Log
22 Nov '25: Happy Saturday!
Our Power of 1 Degree AI feature today is Christmas week 21-27 December forecast. December looks to bring a couple shots of the Polar Vortex with a significant event sweeping the U.S. late month. This will benefit seasonal category sales, but likely disruptive to the last few days of the holiday shopping season. CLICK ON IMAGER FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Snow accessories are likely to be the biggest gainers up +40% YOY, Heaters +37% and Window Insulation Kits +34%. Cold beverages (-7%) will lose out to hot beverages.
It appears we're headed for a very short weak La Niña start to Winter followed by a warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean going into 2026.
The Polar Vortex is weak which allows intrusions of Arctic Air to push South. A brief, weak glancing shot for Thanksgiving weekend and then another one in early December. It's important to note that just because the Polar Vortex is weak, doesn't mean the cold air will impact the U.S., in can just as easily shift into Europe or Asia.
Drought is about to make a big improvement with a much wetter pattern ahead. As of 18 November, 69% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases vs 78% this time last year. Average is around 52% of the U.S. in dry phases. Again, this will make a dramatic improvement over the months ahead. The peak year was 2022 with 82% of the U.S. dry and the least drought was in 2009 at 27%.
The U.S. cold 32F index to date shows an uptick of +18% vs last year, but still 4th least in 40 years. The snow index is down -18% season-to-date and 4th least in 40 years. Both will dramatically increase in December.
The 2-week U.S. snowfall outlook shows a snowier pattern ahead, with a particularly snowy first week of December. The bars show the YOY change in national snowfall, while the line shows the total snow index across 260 cities.
Last week (16-22 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +2.4F warmer than last year and 3rd warmest of the past 40 years. The Northeast was the exception, trending much colder than last year and the favored spot for Fall seasonal merchandise sales. Cold 32F days nationally were down -4%, least in 9 years and 3rd least in 40 years, while rainfall was -37% drier than a year ago, but 21st driest of the past 40 years (near average). This was likely a slower week for seasonal sales, except the Northeast.
The U.K. was particularly cold, coldest in 32 years.
This Thanksgiving week (23-29 Nov) is a little misleading with a mild start but then a much colder Thanksgiving weekend. For the week overall, the U.S. trends +3.6F warmer than a year ago, warmest in 5 years and 12th warmest of the past 40 years. Snowfall is up +13% nationally, most in 6 years and 18th most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +50% but 17th driest in 40 years.
Thanksgiving 4-day weekend (27th - 30th) shows a much colder trend in the East as a cold front sweeps of the East Coast. The U.S. overall trends +3.9F warmer than last year's coldest Thanksgiving in 40 years, but still 12th coldest of the past 40 years. Snowfall is way up +195% and most in 39 years, while rainfall is up +159% and wettest in 3 years. This is somewhat disruptive to overall store traffic.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (22-27 Nov) prior to Thanksgiving shows 23% of the U.S. population getting some light snow (mainly the norther tier of the U.S.), but -40% less than a year ago and least in 3 years.
Next week (30 Nov - 6 Dec) shows signs of the Polar Vortex slipping into the U.S. starting in the Plains and heading East late in the week. Warm out in front of this front. The U.S. overall trends +3.1F warmer than last year which was brutally cold (coldest in 22 years), but national temperatures still trend below average. Snowfall is again way up +136% vs LY, most in 18 years and 2nd most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +518% and #1 most in 40 years. These are favorable trends for must have Winter seasonal merchandise, but very disruptive to overall store traffic. Stormy weather leads to shopping trip consolidation and a surge in on-line purchases over brick-and-mortar stores.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (23 Nov - 6 Dec) shows colder weather returning to Canada and eventually most of the U.S. late in the period. Milder across the U.K.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (23 Nov - 6 Dec) shows a very wet and snowy pattern across North America. Brazil also getting much needed rainfall for their crops.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)
Our Power of 1 Degree AI feature today is Christmas week 21-27 December forecast. December looks to bring a couple shots of the Polar Vortex with a significant event sweeping the U.S. late month. This will benefit seasonal category sales, but likely disruptive to the last few days of the holiday shopping season. CLICK ON IMAGER FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Snow accessories are likely to be the biggest gainers up +40% YOY, Heaters +37% and Window Insulation Kits +34%. Cold beverages (-7%) will lose out to hot beverages.
It appears we're headed for a very short weak La Niña start to Winter followed by a warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean going into 2026.
The Polar Vortex is weak which allows intrusions of Arctic Air to push South. A brief, weak glancing shot for Thanksgiving weekend and then another one in early December. It's important to note that just because the Polar Vortex is weak, doesn't mean the cold air will impact the U.S., in can just as easily shift into Europe or Asia.
Drought is about to make a big improvement with a much wetter pattern ahead. As of 18 November, 69% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases vs 78% this time last year. Average is around 52% of the U.S. in dry phases. Again, this will make a dramatic improvement over the months ahead. The peak year was 2022 with 82% of the U.S. dry and the least drought was in 2009 at 27%.
The U.S. cold 32F index to date shows an uptick of +18% vs last year, but still 4th least in 40 years. The snow index is down -18% season-to-date and 4th least in 40 years. Both will dramatically increase in December.
The 2-week U.S. snowfall outlook shows a snowier pattern ahead, with a particularly snowy first week of December. The bars show the YOY change in national snowfall, while the line shows the total snow index across 260 cities.
Last week (16-22 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +2.4F warmer than last year and 3rd warmest of the past 40 years. The Northeast was the exception, trending much colder than last year and the favored spot for Fall seasonal merchandise sales. Cold 32F days nationally were down -4%, least in 9 years and 3rd least in 40 years, while rainfall was -37% drier than a year ago, but 21st driest of the past 40 years (near average). This was likely a slower week for seasonal sales, except the Northeast.
The U.K. was particularly cold, coldest in 32 years.
This Thanksgiving week (23-29 Nov) is a little misleading with a mild start but then a much colder Thanksgiving weekend. For the week overall, the U.S. trends +3.6F warmer than a year ago, warmest in 5 years and 12th warmest of the past 40 years. Snowfall is up +13% nationally, most in 6 years and 18th most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +50% but 17th driest in 40 years.
Thanksgiving 4-day weekend (27th - 30th) shows a much colder trend in the East as a cold front sweeps of the East Coast. The U.S. overall trends +3.9F warmer than last year's coldest Thanksgiving in 40 years, but still 12th coldest of the past 40 years. Snowfall is way up +195% and most in 39 years, while rainfall is up +159% and wettest in 3 years. This is somewhat disruptive to overall store traffic.
The 6-day snowfall outlook (22-27 Nov) prior to Thanksgiving shows 23% of the U.S. population getting some light snow (mainly the norther tier of the U.S.), but -40% less than a year ago and least in 3 years.
Next week (30 Nov - 6 Dec) shows signs of the Polar Vortex slipping into the U.S. starting in the Plains and heading East late in the week. Warm out in front of this front. The U.S. overall trends +3.1F warmer than last year which was brutally cold (coldest in 22 years), but national temperatures still trend below average. Snowfall is again way up +136% vs LY, most in 18 years and 2nd most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +518% and #1 most in 40 years. These are favorable trends for must have Winter seasonal merchandise, but very disruptive to overall store traffic. Stormy weather leads to shopping trip consolidation and a surge in on-line purchases over brick-and-mortar stores.
The World 2-week Temperature Outlook (23 Nov - 6 Dec) shows colder weather returning to Canada and eventually most of the U.S. late in the period. Milder across the U.K.
The World 2-week Precipitation Outlook (23 Nov - 6 Dec) shows a very wet and snowy pattern across North America. Brazil also getting much needed rainfall for their crops.
You can get this blog/video in your email inbox every Saturday (FREE) via subscription.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)