Captain's Blog 14 Jun '25: Very Unfavorable Father's Day
Captain's Log
14 June '25: Happy Saturday. :)
It's another gloomy weekend here in the Northeast, timing is very unfavorable for Father's Day retail sales with the U.S. overall trending the coolest in 5 years, 9th coolest of the past 40 years with the Northeast the worst weather pick trending 4th coolest in 40 years. A wholesale change from last year's hot weather. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Father's Day weekend rainfall is also way up +146% over LY, most in 6 years and 6th most in 40 years, while hot 90F days are down -49% vs LY. This will have a big negative impact on hot seasonal and consumable categories like AC, fans, pool supplies, grills, cold beverages, men's shorts, etc.
Year-to-date hot 90F days nationally are still down -14% vs last year, but the Northeast shows the greatest downward trend -64% vs last year and least in 11 years. This negatively impacts hot seasonal categories like AC and cold beverages.
Some of the big fires in Canada have been contained with some rain helping a bit, but larger files continue across Central-Northern Alberta, North Central Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba. The Jet Stream frequently picks up this smoke and transports it to the U.S., for now a brief lull in the Lower 48.
Dust coming off the Sahara Desert in Africa has also diminished a bit, but some increased dust possible late June. This acts to suppress any tropical development and very common early in the Summer.
Severe weather to date shows Tornadoes down -4% vs last year, but still +35% above average with 1,144 events. Hail is also down -4% vs last year with 3,602 events which is +3% above average. Wind events remain the biggest impact trending +19% vs last year, most in 14 years and +50% above average.
This week the severe weather threat shifts to the Northern Plains.
Last week (8-14 June) across the World shows the U.S. again trending -1.8F cooler than last year, but still 16th warmest of the past 40 years. This was the 4th straight week to trend cooler than last year, with 6 of the past 7 weeks trending cooler nationally than a year ago. Hot 90F days nationally were down -28% vs LY but still 18th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall was up +81% vs LY, wettest in 10 years and 13th wettest of the past 40 years. These are unfavorable trends for Summer seasonal category sales. The Northwest U.S. was the most favorable with hotter/drier weather.
Western Europe was the hot spot while it was very cool across the Southern Hemisphere from Australia to Brazil.
This week (15-21 June) starts off very cool in the Northeast, but a brief warm up late week. Nationally the week trends -0.8F cooler than LY but 13th warmest of the past 40 years with the heat shifting into the Rocky Mountains and Plains. Hot 90F days still down -33% vs LY while rainfall is up +44% vs LY and wettest in 6 years. These remain soft trends for retail seasonal sales.
Summer according to the sun arrives Friday 20 June at 10:43pm EDT. Meteorological Summer started 1 June.
Next week (22-28 June) shows a transient weather pattern with the warmer weather shifting into the Southeast while it cools off in the West. The Northeast remains near to slightly above average with no major heat waves in sight. The U.S. overall trends -1.9F cooler than a year ago and 13th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days still down -22% vs LY and 10th most of the past 40 years. Rainfall finally down -11% vs LY, driest in 3 years but still 17th wettest of the past 40 years with much needed rain for the Midwest-Corn Belt. Should be a drier week in the Northeast which will help some seasonal categories like pool supplies.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (15-28 June) shows the Rockies and Southeast the warmer spots, Western Europe remains warm while Australia (Winter) warms up.
The World 2-week Rainfall outlook (15-28 June) shows the wet pattern in the Central U.S. and parts of Southern Canada which should help a bit with the Canadian wildfires. Dry across the U.K. is favorable for seasonal sales.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
It's another gloomy weekend here in the Northeast, timing is very unfavorable for Father's Day retail sales with the U.S. overall trending the coolest in 5 years, 9th coolest of the past 40 years with the Northeast the worst weather pick trending 4th coolest in 40 years. A wholesale change from last year's hot weather. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Father's Day weekend rainfall is also way up +146% over LY, most in 6 years and 6th most in 40 years, while hot 90F days are down -49% vs LY. This will have a big negative impact on hot seasonal and consumable categories like AC, fans, pool supplies, grills, cold beverages, men's shorts, etc.
Year-to-date hot 90F days nationally are still down -14% vs last year, but the Northeast shows the greatest downward trend -64% vs last year and least in 11 years. This negatively impacts hot seasonal categories like AC and cold beverages.
Some of the big fires in Canada have been contained with some rain helping a bit, but larger files continue across Central-Northern Alberta, North Central Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba. The Jet Stream frequently picks up this smoke and transports it to the U.S., for now a brief lull in the Lower 48.
Dust coming off the Sahara Desert in Africa has also diminished a bit, but some increased dust possible late June. This acts to suppress any tropical development and very common early in the Summer.
Severe weather to date shows Tornadoes down -4% vs last year, but still +35% above average with 1,144 events. Hail is also down -4% vs last year with 3,602 events which is +3% above average. Wind events remain the biggest impact trending +19% vs last year, most in 14 years and +50% above average.
This week the severe weather threat shifts to the Northern Plains.
Last week (8-14 June) across the World shows the U.S. again trending -1.8F cooler than last year, but still 16th warmest of the past 40 years. This was the 4th straight week to trend cooler than last year, with 6 of the past 7 weeks trending cooler nationally than a year ago. Hot 90F days nationally were down -28% vs LY but still 18th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall was up +81% vs LY, wettest in 10 years and 13th wettest of the past 40 years. These are unfavorable trends for Summer seasonal category sales. The Northwest U.S. was the most favorable with hotter/drier weather.
Western Europe was the hot spot while it was very cool across the Southern Hemisphere from Australia to Brazil.
This week (15-21 June) starts off very cool in the Northeast, but a brief warm up late week. Nationally the week trends -0.8F cooler than LY but 13th warmest of the past 40 years with the heat shifting into the Rocky Mountains and Plains. Hot 90F days still down -33% vs LY while rainfall is up +44% vs LY and wettest in 6 years. These remain soft trends for retail seasonal sales.
Summer according to the sun arrives Friday 20 June at 10:43pm EDT. Meteorological Summer started 1 June.
Next week (22-28 June) shows a transient weather pattern with the warmer weather shifting into the Southeast while it cools off in the West. The Northeast remains near to slightly above average with no major heat waves in sight. The U.S. overall trends -1.9F cooler than a year ago and 13th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days still down -22% vs LY and 10th most of the past 40 years. Rainfall finally down -11% vs LY, driest in 3 years but still 17th wettest of the past 40 years with much needed rain for the Midwest-Corn Belt. Should be a drier week in the Northeast which will help some seasonal categories like pool supplies.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (15-28 June) shows the Rockies and Southeast the warmer spots, Western Europe remains warm while Australia (Winter) warms up.
The World 2-week Rainfall outlook (15-28 June) shows the wet pattern in the Central U.S. and parts of Southern Canada which should help a bit with the Canadian wildfires. Dry across the U.K. is favorable for seasonal sales.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out