Captain's Blog 16 Aug '25 Warmer/Drier then a Cooling Trend
Captain's Log
16 Aug '25: Happy Saturday! :)
There's only 16 days or Summer left according to meteorologists, 37 days if you go with the sun. Wildfires are popping up with 43,381 so far this year which is the most in 10+ years, +19 above average and +75% vs last year. This will be a high-risk threat well into Fall. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Wildfire smoke from Canada and U.S. fires continues to circulate across parts of the U.S. making for milky hazy skies.
U.S. drought has dropped to the lowest levels in 6 years with 49% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases. This is way down from the near record peak of 88% back on 5 November 2024. Drought is expanding in the Western third of the U.S. Average this time of year is 51%.
Severe Weather has slowed with tornadoes trending -10% vs last year, hail cases flat to last year and wind cases still trending +10% over last year.
The 4-day severe weather outlook shows some minimal threats in the Upper Plains-Midwest.
Tropical activity across the World shows an active Southern Indian Ocean basin and now the Atlantic basin is heating up with major CAT 3 hurricane Erin.
Fortunately, now CAT 4 ERIN is likely to stay about 300 miles off the U.S. East Coast and 300 miles West of Bermuda. Only impact likely to be 8-12 foot waves on Middle Atlantic and Northeast beaches the middle of next week.
We are only on day 76 of the season with 106 days left in the 2025 hurricane season, so a lot of risk ahead.
A quick look at the oceans shows most of the oceanic cycles in a weaker phase with an ENSO Neutral phase likely to continue for 2025 - early 2026 (aka No El Niño, No La Niña).
The U.S. CFSv2 model shows more significant cooling, this doesn't appear likely.
The subsurface shows some below average water temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific, but this is likely to warm as it nears the surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
The primary impact of this cycle is increased hurricane threats for the U.S. and another colder Winter ahead.
Hot 90F days across the U.S. year-to-date show -5% vs last year, but 7th most of the past 40 years. The Northeast trending down -11% vs last year and also 7th most in 40 years. This is a slightly negative factor for hot Summer seasonal categories.
The 2-week forecast for hot 90F days show a bigger downward trend with the U.S. -13% vs last year, least in 3 years and even cooler in the Northeast trending down -60% vs last year and least in 8 years.
Last week (10-16 Aug) across the World shows warmer trends across the U.S. and Europe and cooler across Asia and Australia. The U.S. overall trended +2.5F warmer than last year, 6th warmest in 40 years. Hot 90F days were up +39% and most in 4 years, while rainfall was up +38% and near average nationally.
This week (17-23 Aug) shows a cooling trend on the immediate East Coast, but the U.S. overall trends +2.4F warmer than last year and 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days up +26% vs LY, 3rd most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +28% nationally, wettest in 3 years, but still 11th driest of the past 40 years. These trends typically keep consumers in the Summer mindset and hurt back2school sales that benefit from cooler/wetter weather.
Next week (24-30 Aug) prior Labor Day weekend shows a more significant cool down with the U.S. trending -3.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years and 17th coolest in 40 years. Hot 90F days down -45% vs last year, least in 6 years and 17th least in 40 years, while rainfall is down -22%, driest in 10 years. This will bring a slight bounce in back2school sales with the cooler trends. Some models hint at the risk for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico - TBD.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (17-30 Aug) shows cooling trends for Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Europe.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (17-30 Aug) shows a drier U.S. and U.K. pattern, wet in Central Europe and Central America-Mexico.
We end today's video update with some of the highlights of our Symphony of the Seas birthday adventure (Mrs. Captain Kirk) from New York City area to the Bahamas. Our 56K+ fans on Facebook and 6K+ on YouTube haven't seen the not so little Angelina Kirk recently, so here ya go. :)
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
There's only 16 days or Summer left according to meteorologists, 37 days if you go with the sun. Wildfires are popping up with 43,381 so far this year which is the most in 10+ years, +19 above average and +75% vs last year. This will be a high-risk threat well into Fall. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Wildfire smoke from Canada and U.S. fires continues to circulate across parts of the U.S. making for milky hazy skies.
U.S. drought has dropped to the lowest levels in 6 years with 49% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases. This is way down from the near record peak of 88% back on 5 November 2024. Drought is expanding in the Western third of the U.S. Average this time of year is 51%.
Severe Weather has slowed with tornadoes trending -10% vs last year, hail cases flat to last year and wind cases still trending +10% over last year.
The 4-day severe weather outlook shows some minimal threats in the Upper Plains-Midwest.
Tropical activity across the World shows an active Southern Indian Ocean basin and now the Atlantic basin is heating up with major CAT 3 hurricane Erin.
Fortunately, now CAT 4 ERIN is likely to stay about 300 miles off the U.S. East Coast and 300 miles West of Bermuda. Only impact likely to be 8-12 foot waves on Middle Atlantic and Northeast beaches the middle of next week.
We are only on day 76 of the season with 106 days left in the 2025 hurricane season, so a lot of risk ahead.
A quick look at the oceans shows most of the oceanic cycles in a weaker phase with an ENSO Neutral phase likely to continue for 2025 - early 2026 (aka No El Niño, No La Niña).
The U.S. CFSv2 model shows more significant cooling, this doesn't appear likely.
The subsurface shows some below average water temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific, but this is likely to warm as it nears the surface of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
The primary impact of this cycle is increased hurricane threats for the U.S. and another colder Winter ahead.
Hot 90F days across the U.S. year-to-date show -5% vs last year, but 7th most of the past 40 years. The Northeast trending down -11% vs last year and also 7th most in 40 years. This is a slightly negative factor for hot Summer seasonal categories.
The 2-week forecast for hot 90F days show a bigger downward trend with the U.S. -13% vs last year, least in 3 years and even cooler in the Northeast trending down -60% vs last year and least in 8 years.
Last week (10-16 Aug) across the World shows warmer trends across the U.S. and Europe and cooler across Asia and Australia. The U.S. overall trended +2.5F warmer than last year, 6th warmest in 40 years. Hot 90F days were up +39% and most in 4 years, while rainfall was up +38% and near average nationally.
This week (17-23 Aug) shows a cooling trend on the immediate East Coast, but the U.S. overall trends +2.4F warmer than last year and 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days up +26% vs LY, 3rd most in 40 years, while rainfall is up +28% nationally, wettest in 3 years, but still 11th driest of the past 40 years. These trends typically keep consumers in the Summer mindset and hurt back2school sales that benefit from cooler/wetter weather.
Next week (24-30 Aug) prior Labor Day weekend shows a more significant cool down with the U.S. trending -3.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 6 years and 17th coolest in 40 years. Hot 90F days down -45% vs last year, least in 6 years and 17th least in 40 years, while rainfall is down -22%, driest in 10 years. This will bring a slight bounce in back2school sales with the cooler trends. Some models hint at the risk for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico - TBD.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (17-30 Aug) shows cooling trends for Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Europe.
The World 2-week Precipitation outlook (17-30 Aug) shows a drier U.S. and U.K. pattern, wet in Central Europe and Central America-Mexico.
We end today's video update with some of the highlights of our Symphony of the Seas birthday adventure (Mrs. Captain Kirk) from New York City area to the Bahamas. Our 56K+ fans on Facebook and 6K+ on YouTube haven't seen the not so little Angelina Kirk recently, so here ya go. :)
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out