Captain's Blog 19 Jul '25 Warmer & Drier Pattern Ahead
Captain's Log
19 July 2025: Happy Saturday :)
We're at the mid-point of meteorological Summer (1 Jun - 31 Aug). U.S. temperatures are trending -1.4F cooler than last year and 10th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are down -10% vs last year, but 6th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall is up +10% vs LY, wettest in 4 years and 12th wettest of the past 40 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Hot 90F days year-to-date are down -8% nationally vs last year, but still 5th most in 40 years. The Northeast is down -27% vs last year and 7th most of the past 40 years. Last year the Northeast had the most hot 90F days in 36 years with extreme conditions. This in part explains why some hot seasonal Summer categories are down vs last year, but overall a decent Summer.
The 2-week heat outlook shows a warming trend with the U.S. expected to trend up +32% vs last year and 2nd most in 40 years, while the Northeast is up +19% vs LY and 14th most in 40 years.
Severe weather to date shows tornadoes now trending down -8% vs last year, hail down -3% vs last year, while wind cases are up +13% and the most in 14 years. This time last year there was a very active tornado outbreak, not this year.
The 4-day severe weather outlook shows some severe weather from the Plains to the Midwest to the Northeast.
While we've had 3 named storms in the Atlantic this season, most metrics are actually below average. There is another threat area being watched by the National Hurricane Center. This weak tropical wave will move in the general direction of the Caribbean. The next named storm will be Dexter...TBD.
Last week (13-19 July) across the World shows the U.S. trending -2.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years and 16th coolest in 40 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days were down -21% vs last year, least in 4 years, but 18the most in 40 years, while rainfall was up +24% vs LY, most in 4 years and 6th most in 40 years. These were generally soft trends for hot Summer seasonal category sales.
Similarly cool trends across Canada, but continued warmer across the U.K. and especially China where it was the #1 hottest in 40+ years and driest in 38 years.
This week (20-26 July) shows a warming trend developing with the U.S. trending +2.2F warmer than last year and 10th warmest of the past 40 years. Another stronger heat-dome will anchor primarily over the Central U.S. Hot 90F days up +49% over last year and 6th most in 40 years, while rainfall is down -20% but still 16th wettest of the past 40 years. Fortunately, some rain in the U.S. corn belt (Iowa to Ohio) despite the building heat. Expectations are for another record yield which has corn prices low around $4 bu/ac. Very dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest will allow larger wildfires to continue to expand.
The Northeast U.S. will go from very cool conditions to start the week with temperatures in the 50s, even some 40s Tuesday morning, but then building heat late in the week with more low to middle 90s from DC to New York City.
Next week (27 Jul - 2 Aug) shows the heat-dome anchored over Kansas with a bit cooler conditions in the Northeast. The U.S. overall looks to trend +0.4F warmer than LY, warmest in 13 years and 3rd warmest in 40 years, while hot 90F days are up _5% vs last year, most in 26 years and 3rd most in 40 years. Rainfall down -21% vs LY and 16th driest of the past 40 years. These are favorable trends (Warmer/Drier) for consumable Summer seasonal items like cold beverages, pool chemicals, fresh fruit, etc.
The World 2-week temperature outlook (20 Jul - 2 Aug) shows the heart of the heat in the Central U.S. and not as extreme on the West Coast or Northeast. Europe and Australia cool off, while it remains very hot in China and Brazil.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (20 Jul - 2 Aug) shows rainfall going around the heat dome in the Central U.S. - dry in the South Central U.S. Wetter across Europe combined with cooler temps will soften demand for Summer seasonal items.
Have a great week ahead and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
We're at the mid-point of meteorological Summer (1 Jun - 31 Aug). U.S. temperatures are trending -1.4F cooler than last year and 10th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are down -10% vs last year, but 6th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall is up +10% vs LY, wettest in 4 years and 12th wettest of the past 40 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Hot 90F days year-to-date are down -8% nationally vs last year, but still 5th most in 40 years. The Northeast is down -27% vs last year and 7th most of the past 40 years. Last year the Northeast had the most hot 90F days in 36 years with extreme conditions. This in part explains why some hot seasonal Summer categories are down vs last year, but overall a decent Summer.
The 2-week heat outlook shows a warming trend with the U.S. expected to trend up +32% vs last year and 2nd most in 40 years, while the Northeast is up +19% vs LY and 14th most in 40 years.
Severe weather to date shows tornadoes now trending down -8% vs last year, hail down -3% vs last year, while wind cases are up +13% and the most in 14 years. This time last year there was a very active tornado outbreak, not this year.
The 4-day severe weather outlook shows some severe weather from the Plains to the Midwest to the Northeast.
While we've had 3 named storms in the Atlantic this season, most metrics are actually below average. There is another threat area being watched by the National Hurricane Center. This weak tropical wave will move in the general direction of the Caribbean. The next named storm will be Dexter...TBD.
Last week (13-19 July) across the World shows the U.S. trending -2.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years and 16th coolest in 40 years with below average national temperatures. Hot 90F days were down -21% vs last year, least in 4 years, but 18the most in 40 years, while rainfall was up +24% vs LY, most in 4 years and 6th most in 40 years. These were generally soft trends for hot Summer seasonal category sales.
Similarly cool trends across Canada, but continued warmer across the U.K. and especially China where it was the #1 hottest in 40+ years and driest in 38 years.
This week (20-26 July) shows a warming trend developing with the U.S. trending +2.2F warmer than last year and 10th warmest of the past 40 years. Another stronger heat-dome will anchor primarily over the Central U.S. Hot 90F days up +49% over last year and 6th most in 40 years, while rainfall is down -20% but still 16th wettest of the past 40 years. Fortunately, some rain in the U.S. corn belt (Iowa to Ohio) despite the building heat. Expectations are for another record yield which has corn prices low around $4 bu/ac. Very dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest will allow larger wildfires to continue to expand.
The Northeast U.S. will go from very cool conditions to start the week with temperatures in the 50s, even some 40s Tuesday morning, but then building heat late in the week with more low to middle 90s from DC to New York City.
Next week (27 Jul - 2 Aug) shows the heat-dome anchored over Kansas with a bit cooler conditions in the Northeast. The U.S. overall looks to trend +0.4F warmer than LY, warmest in 13 years and 3rd warmest in 40 years, while hot 90F days are up _5% vs last year, most in 26 years and 3rd most in 40 years. Rainfall down -21% vs LY and 16th driest of the past 40 years. These are favorable trends (Warmer/Drier) for consumable Summer seasonal items like cold beverages, pool chemicals, fresh fruit, etc.
The World 2-week temperature outlook (20 Jul - 2 Aug) shows the heart of the heat in the Central U.S. and not as extreme on the West Coast or Northeast. Europe and Australia cool off, while it remains very hot in China and Brazil.
The World 2-week precipitation outlook (20 Jul - 2 Aug) shows rainfall going around the heat dome in the Central U.S. - dry in the South Central U.S. Wetter across Europe combined with cooler temps will soften demand for Summer seasonal items.
Have a great week ahead and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter(X), YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out