Captain's Blog 21 Jun '25 1st Major Heat Wave Northeast
Captain's Log
21 June '25: Happy Saturday, Happy First Day of Summer! :)
The first major heatwave for the Northeastern U.S. is coming about the same time as last year, but it will be shorter lived. This is much needed for hot seasonal categories as year-to-date hot 90F days for the U.S. are down -14% vs last year and the Northeast down -81% and the least in 22 years. We'll make up ground this week. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Adding in the next two weeks, we make up a lot of ground on hot 90F days, but the U.S. still trending down -7% vs last year and the Northeast -33% vs last year. But, this will certainly bring a lot of pent-up demand for Summer seasonal categories like pool supplies, cold beverages, BBQ categories. Larger ticket items like AC may be flat to down since everyone most likely got their AC last year when this period was the hottest in history.
14-day trend charts show the 4-day heatwave early this week and ending with a strong cold front midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days in the East. Boston as an example surges to 98F and then plummets to 71F behind the cold front. Minneapolis goes from 97F to 73F and here at wt360 we go from 98F to 82F. The hype calling this weather set-up the "Death ridge or Death Dome" etc is a little over the top in terms of media sensationalism, as humans survive just fine in Dallas, Phoenix with much hotter weather for very long periods. ;)
Year-over-year temperature trends show the overall cooler May-June pattern vs last year and even this heat-wave is cooler than the major 7-day event a year ago. Next weekend is actually warmer nationally than last year although much cooler than the midweek heat-wave.
Our Power of 1 Degree YEAR-AHEAD forecasting technology shows how small changes in temperatures have a huge influence on seasonal sales. Every 1F warmer there's a 15% increase in AC sales, 4% for pool chemicals and 1% for cold beverages.
Knowing how your category moves up and down with the weather a year-ahead, store-by-store is the outputs of the wt360 technology. This forward looking business intelligence helps with almost every phase of business planning.
Severe weather had an uptick in activity this past week and we even had a report of a tornado here in Eastern PA. Year-to-date tornadoes are down -2% vs last year, hail down -1% vs last year, but wind cases up +25% vs last year for an active season, just not quite as active as a year ago.
The 3-day severe weather outlook shows the severe weather ahead of the major cold front that will end this heatwave for the northern half of the country by Thursday.
Last week (15-21 Jun) across the World shows the U.S. still trending -1F cooler than a year ago but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days still down -30% vs last year but also 6th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall was up +17% and 15th wettest of the past 40 years. These are slightly negative trends for YOY seasonal sales. It was very favorable in the U.K. and Europe. Very cool and wet in India and Brazil relative to this time of year.
This week (22-28 June) kicks off Summer with favorable conditions for hot seasonal categories with strong pent up demand in the Northeast. With near record wet rainy days in the Northeast the past 7 weeks, there will be a big pent-up demand surge in Summer seasonal items. The bullseye of the hot weather is in the Middle Atlantic. The U.S. overall trends -0.9F cooler than last year but still 3rd warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are up +6% vs last year and #1 most in 40 years, while rainfall is down -15%, driest in 3 years and 15th driest in 40 years. This will be a strong sales week relative to prior weeks, but maybe not as good as last year.
Next week (29 Jun - 5 Jul) is the 4th of July weekend and it looks generally favorable. National temperatures trend +1.2F warmer than a year ago and 8th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are up +13% and 6th most in 40 years while rainfall is down -19%, driest in 5 years and 18th driest of the past 40 years. This should be a favorable end to the 5-week retail June, TBD if it's enough to trump the unfavorable front half of the month and the very unfavorable Father's Day weekend.
The World 2-week (22 Jun - 5 Jul) Temperature outlook shows the favorable weather trends across much of North America and Europe.
The World 2-week (22 Jun - 5 Jul) Precipitation outlook shows ample moisture in the Eastern half of the U.S. but very dry across Europe.
We hope you have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
The first major heatwave for the Northeastern U.S. is coming about the same time as last year, but it will be shorter lived. This is much needed for hot seasonal categories as year-to-date hot 90F days for the U.S. are down -14% vs last year and the Northeast down -81% and the least in 22 years. We'll make up ground this week. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Adding in the next two weeks, we make up a lot of ground on hot 90F days, but the U.S. still trending down -7% vs last year and the Northeast -33% vs last year. But, this will certainly bring a lot of pent-up demand for Summer seasonal categories like pool supplies, cold beverages, BBQ categories. Larger ticket items like AC may be flat to down since everyone most likely got their AC last year when this period was the hottest in history.
14-day trend charts show the 4-day heatwave early this week and ending with a strong cold front midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days in the East. Boston as an example surges to 98F and then plummets to 71F behind the cold front. Minneapolis goes from 97F to 73F and here at wt360 we go from 98F to 82F. The hype calling this weather set-up the "Death ridge or Death Dome" etc is a little over the top in terms of media sensationalism, as humans survive just fine in Dallas, Phoenix with much hotter weather for very long periods. ;)
Year-over-year temperature trends show the overall cooler May-June pattern vs last year and even this heat-wave is cooler than the major 7-day event a year ago. Next weekend is actually warmer nationally than last year although much cooler than the midweek heat-wave.
Our Power of 1 Degree YEAR-AHEAD forecasting technology shows how small changes in temperatures have a huge influence on seasonal sales. Every 1F warmer there's a 15% increase in AC sales, 4% for pool chemicals and 1% for cold beverages.
Knowing how your category moves up and down with the weather a year-ahead, store-by-store is the outputs of the wt360 technology. This forward looking business intelligence helps with almost every phase of business planning.
Severe weather had an uptick in activity this past week and we even had a report of a tornado here in Eastern PA. Year-to-date tornadoes are down -2% vs last year, hail down -1% vs last year, but wind cases up +25% vs last year for an active season, just not quite as active as a year ago.
The 3-day severe weather outlook shows the severe weather ahead of the major cold front that will end this heatwave for the northern half of the country by Thursday.
Last week (15-21 Jun) across the World shows the U.S. still trending -1F cooler than a year ago but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days still down -30% vs last year but also 6th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall was up +17% and 15th wettest of the past 40 years. These are slightly negative trends for YOY seasonal sales. It was very favorable in the U.K. and Europe. Very cool and wet in India and Brazil relative to this time of year.
This week (22-28 June) kicks off Summer with favorable conditions for hot seasonal categories with strong pent up demand in the Northeast. With near record wet rainy days in the Northeast the past 7 weeks, there will be a big pent-up demand surge in Summer seasonal items. The bullseye of the hot weather is in the Middle Atlantic. The U.S. overall trends -0.9F cooler than last year but still 3rd warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are up +6% vs last year and #1 most in 40 years, while rainfall is down -15%, driest in 3 years and 15th driest in 40 years. This will be a strong sales week relative to prior weeks, but maybe not as good as last year.
Next week (29 Jun - 5 Jul) is the 4th of July weekend and it looks generally favorable. National temperatures trend +1.2F warmer than a year ago and 8th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are up +13% and 6th most in 40 years while rainfall is down -19%, driest in 5 years and 18th driest of the past 40 years. This should be a favorable end to the 5-week retail June, TBD if it's enough to trump the unfavorable front half of the month and the very unfavorable Father's Day weekend.
The World 2-week (22 Jun - 5 Jul) Temperature outlook shows the favorable weather trends across much of North America and Europe.
The World 2-week (22 Jun - 5 Jul) Precipitation outlook shows ample moisture in the Eastern half of the U.S. but very dry across Europe.
We hope you have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out