Captain's Blog 28 Jun '25 Coolest July 4th Weekend in 10 Years
Captain's Log
28 June 2025: Happy Saturday.
The Equatorial Pacific Ocean looks to remain in an ENSO Neutral Phase (no La Niña, no El Niño) for the balance of 2025. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
The sub-surface water temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific show generally warmer than average water temperatures suggesting a neutral to slightly warm phase for 2025 into early 2026.
Drought shows 49% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases which is up a bit over last year when 45% of the U.S. was dry vs an average year of 46%. Drought is clearly expanding in the West and Central Plains.
The number of wildfires across the U.S. is +32% above average and the most in over 10 years. Wildfires are up +114% vs last year which was near historic low in terms of numbers of fires at this point in the season. The Summer - Fall wildfire season is likely to become a major concern this year primarily in the West.
Severe weather cases remain high with tornadoes the most in 14 years, wind cases the most in 14 years and hail is down vs last year.
The severe weather outlook shows the Upper Plains and Midwest the highest risk regions over the next few days then diminishing a bit.
Hot 90F days year-to-date through the 27th of June show the U.S. trending down -9% vs last year and despite the major heatwave in the Northeast, hot 90F days are actually down -26% vs last year. But that's a big uptick from a week ago when the Northeast was the least in 22 years.
The 2-week outlook shows diminishing heatwaves with hot 90F days down -15% and least in 4 years nationally for the 28 Jun - 12 Jul period. The Northeast is down -77% vs last year and least in 10 years. This will have a negative impact on hot seasonal categories like AC, cold beverages and auto batteries.
Last week (22-28 Jun) across the World shows the U.S. trending -1.6F COOLER than last year but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. But, hot 90F days were up +3% and the #1 most in 40 years thanks to the 5-day heatwave that plagued the eastern half of the country. Several cities from DC to Boston topped 100F with record highs. Rainfall was down -15% vs last year, driest in 3 years and 16th driest of the past 40 years. This was a good week with strong pent-up demand for items like pool chemicals, water toys, and cold beverages.
The U.K., Western Europe, and Northeast China were the really hot spots.
This week (29 Jun - 5 Jul) shows a moderating trend with the heat shifting toward the Northwest. The U.S. overall trends -0.4F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years but 12th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are down -14% vs last year, least in 9 years nationally and 18th most of the past 40 years. Rainfall is down -12%, driest in 3 years but 17th wettest of the past 40 years. Overall a slightly down week for hot seasonal category sales.
The Independence Day weekend (3-6 July) shows an even cooler trend with the U.S. trending the coolest in 10 years, -2.6F cooler than last year. Hot 90F days are again down -16% vs last year, least in 10 years, while rainfall is -9% drier than a year ago, least in 4 years and 19th driest of the past 40 years. Overall a net negative for hot seasonal category sales with the strongest gains in the Northern Rockies into the Midwest.
Next week (6-12 July) starts the "Dog Days of Summer" with the U.S. overall trending -2F cooler than last year, but 9th warmest of the past 40 years. The heat looks to remain in the Northwest , Plains and build across the Southeast. Hot 90F days down -17% vs last year but still 8th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall is up +2% with much needed rain in the Corn Belt. Overall a somewhat soft week for seasonal sales compared to last year.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (29 Jun - 12 Jul) shows the really hot conditions across Europe, China with building warmer weather across Canada and the Northwest U.S. and Alaska.
The World 2-week Rainfall outlook (29 Jun - 12 Jul) shows generally above average rainfall across much of the U.S. but dry across Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out
The Equatorial Pacific Ocean looks to remain in an ENSO Neutral Phase (no La Niña, no El Niño) for the balance of 2025. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
The sub-surface water temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific show generally warmer than average water temperatures suggesting a neutral to slightly warm phase for 2025 into early 2026.
Drought shows 49% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases which is up a bit over last year when 45% of the U.S. was dry vs an average year of 46%. Drought is clearly expanding in the West and Central Plains.
The number of wildfires across the U.S. is +32% above average and the most in over 10 years. Wildfires are up +114% vs last year which was near historic low in terms of numbers of fires at this point in the season. The Summer - Fall wildfire season is likely to become a major concern this year primarily in the West.
Severe weather cases remain high with tornadoes the most in 14 years, wind cases the most in 14 years and hail is down vs last year.
The severe weather outlook shows the Upper Plains and Midwest the highest risk regions over the next few days then diminishing a bit.
Hot 90F days year-to-date through the 27th of June show the U.S. trending down -9% vs last year and despite the major heatwave in the Northeast, hot 90F days are actually down -26% vs last year. But that's a big uptick from a week ago when the Northeast was the least in 22 years.
The 2-week outlook shows diminishing heatwaves with hot 90F days down -15% and least in 4 years nationally for the 28 Jun - 12 Jul period. The Northeast is down -77% vs last year and least in 10 years. This will have a negative impact on hot seasonal categories like AC, cold beverages and auto batteries.
Last week (22-28 Jun) across the World shows the U.S. trending -1.6F COOLER than last year but still 6th warmest of the past 40 years. But, hot 90F days were up +3% and the #1 most in 40 years thanks to the 5-day heatwave that plagued the eastern half of the country. Several cities from DC to Boston topped 100F with record highs. Rainfall was down -15% vs last year, driest in 3 years and 16th driest of the past 40 years. This was a good week with strong pent-up demand for items like pool chemicals, water toys, and cold beverages.
The U.K., Western Europe, and Northeast China were the really hot spots.
This week (29 Jun - 5 Jul) shows a moderating trend with the heat shifting toward the Northwest. The U.S. overall trends -0.4F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years but 12th warmest of the past 40 years. Hot 90F days are down -14% vs last year, least in 9 years nationally and 18th most of the past 40 years. Rainfall is down -12%, driest in 3 years but 17th wettest of the past 40 years. Overall a slightly down week for hot seasonal category sales.
The Independence Day weekend (3-6 July) shows an even cooler trend with the U.S. trending the coolest in 10 years, -2.6F cooler than last year. Hot 90F days are again down -16% vs last year, least in 10 years, while rainfall is -9% drier than a year ago, least in 4 years and 19th driest of the past 40 years. Overall a net negative for hot seasonal category sales with the strongest gains in the Northern Rockies into the Midwest.
Next week (6-12 July) starts the "Dog Days of Summer" with the U.S. overall trending -2F cooler than last year, but 9th warmest of the past 40 years. The heat looks to remain in the Northwest , Plains and build across the Southeast. Hot 90F days down -17% vs last year but still 8th most of the past 40 years, while rainfall is up +2% with much needed rain in the Corn Belt. Overall a somewhat soft week for seasonal sales compared to last year.
The World 2-week Temperature outlook (29 Jun - 12 Jul) shows the really hot conditions across Europe, China with building warmer weather across Canada and the Northwest U.S. and Alaska.
The World 2-week Rainfall outlook (29 Jun - 12 Jul) shows generally above average rainfall across much of the U.S. but dry across Europe.
Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.
- Captain Kirk out