Captain's Log 10 Jun '23 Cooler Trends Unfavorable for Hot Categories

Captain's Log

10 June '23: Happy Saturday!

No video this week.

A recap of last week across the World (4-10 June) shows the U.S. trending -1.7F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years and 10th coolest in 38 years with below average national temperatures. Rainfall was down -77% vs last year and #1 driest in 38 years. The cool and drier trends are favorable for outside activities, but not favorable for hot Summer categories like AC, cold beverages or suncare. You will be saving on your AC cooling costs. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.


The other big news was the due to the Canadian wildfires burning in Eastern Canada. An upper level low pressure system near Greenland allowed a cool northerly flow to steer the heavy smoke right into the Northeast. The smoke very likely hurt overall store traffic with millions advised to stay indoors. The view from wt360's camera showed the very thick smoke with < 1 mile visibility.


This week (11-17 June) shows the smoke already beginning to sweep of the U.S. East Coast as a cold front moves in early in the week. This week before Father's Day is very cool for the U.S. tending coolest in 20 years, -5.2F cooler than last year and 5th coolest in 38 years with much below average national temperatures. Every 1F cooler this time of year brings a 1-2% decline in cold beverage sales but up to 10% decline in AC sales so beverages off -5% to -10% and AC off up to -50% vs last year. Father's Day shorts typically show a 3% increase for every degree warmer, so this is a -15% trend vs last year. Favorable spots for Summer categories remain in the Pacific Northwest where it's much hotter than last year. Rainfall up +23% vs last year, wettest in 4 years but still 9th driest of the past 38 years. Extremely dry in parts of the Midwest and interior Northeast after 6 weeks with very little rainfall. This pattern should begin to break down a bit for the later part of June.


Next week (18-24 June) improving trends for Summer categories in the Central U.S. and some year-over-year improvement in the Northeast. Temperatures are similar to last year nationally with rainfall 20% wetter than last year, but still 6th driest of the past 38 years. SOME much needed rainfall for the U.S. Corn Belt and parts of the Northeast.


The 2-week World outlook (11-24 June) shows the over all unfavorable Summer category trends in the Northeast U.S. but improving across Europe. Drought is becoming a big concern in China and India as expected which will have an impact on commodity prices for items like sugar, grains and even dairy.


Captain Kirk and family are enjoying the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds in Ocean City Maryland. Fortunately the smoke has cleared out and the practice shows have been great.


We hope you have a great week ahead! Don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk really I'm out. :)