Captain's Log 11 Mar '23 Coldest in 9, Snowiest in 6 Years

11 March 2023: Happy Saturday! :)

Don't forget to Spring Ahead tonight and turn your clocks forward one hour as we start Daylight Savings Time. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



Too much vegetation (grass, flowers, trees) are out 2-4 weeks too early in the South Central and Southeast (Texas to Southern New Jersey) with a high likelihood of some frost and freezes the next couple weeks doing some damage. This poses a risk to fruit trees and other food crops in the Southeast - Middle Atlantic regions which can ultimately create higher prices for vegetable and fruit categories.



The good news is the collapse of the 3-year La Niña cycle has drought plummeting from early November when 85% of the country was in dry to drought phases, a record over the past 22 years and now 55% of the country is dry but improving weekly. This year we will certainly move into more of the country wet, a trend continuing into 2024. Droughts will end with floods here in the Americas as drought shifts to Asia and the SW Pacific basin.



Unfortunately this coldest/wettest Spring in 4 years will be highly conducive to many severe weather and tornadic outbreaks in the U.S. The season is already off to the fastest start in 4 years with 259 tornadoes, +77% above average.



Season-to-date snowfall across the U.S. picked up more ground after this past week where snowfall was the most in 24 years. Seasonal snowfall for the U.S. overall is now +14% more than last year, -8% below average and 16th least of the past 38 years. A snowier March will likely put seasonal totals to the most in 4 years but still below average.



The snowiest week of Winter remains the middle December period, highly unusual to see the snowiest week occur in Fall. The most prolonged snowy period is now occurring in late February and March after not so much in January and the front half of February.



This past week (5-11 March) across the World showed the U.S. trending +4.6F warmer than last year, 17th warmest of the past 38 years. It was -49% drier than a year ago, 8th driest of the past 38 years. Despite the warmer/drier trend, snowfall was actually the most in 24 years, up +11% more than last year and the 4th most in 38 years with much above average national snowfall. The very cold spots were in the U.K. - coldest in 10 years and 3rd coldest in 38 years with Northern Europe equally cold. China had the hottest conditions in decades.



This week (12-18 March) is the start of a much colder pattern with the U.S. trending -6.3F colder than last year, coldest in 6 years and 8th coldest of the past 38 years. Rainfall up +57% over last year, wettest in 20 years and 3rd wettest of the past 38 years. This could also be an active severe weather period in the Southeast. Snowfall up a whopping +823% over last year, most in 6 years and 2nd most in 38 years.



The 6-day snowfall outlook shows another snowy pattern, even for the Northeast with another moderate snow event early in the week. Snowfall for the period is +37% more than last year, +53% above average, most in 5 years and 6th most of the past 38 years nationally with 48% of the U.S. impacted. These are very negative trends for overall retail sales, store traffic and very low demand for Spring seasonal merchandise sales.



The Polar Vortex remains weak and this results in a weaker Jet Stream allowing cold air to move south as will be the case in the U.S. the next few weeks.



Next week (19-25 March) the cold is even more widespread with the U.S. trending -5F colder than last year, coldest in 9 years and 8th coldest of the past 38 years. Nearly the entire U.S. has below average temperatures, a huge negative for Spring merchandise sales. The risk for frost and freeze damage to early vegetation in the South Central and Southeast U.S. is very high.



The 2-week World outlook (12-25 March) shows the U.S. trending the coldest in 9 years and snowiest in 6 years. It remains cold across the U.K. and far Northern Europe. Warm and Dry conditions expand in China where drought is a big concern in 2023.



Happy 9th anniversary to the Mrs. Captain (Simona) Kirk, if only we were back in Hawaii to escape this cold/snowy March.

Have a great week ahead and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out.