Captain's Log 11 May '20 Record Cold to Record Hot?
Written by Bill Kirk
May 11, 2020
Happy Monday! :)
It's hard to say happy Monday as day 55 remote will be at least day 80 remote for folks here in Eastern PA with the Governor's latest order.
Q1 2020 (Feb - Apr) is in the history books and it would have been a great quarter for the retail industry if it weren't for the global shut-down to COVID19. Here in the U.S. the quarter ended up the warmest in 3 years, 6th warmest in 35 years with much above average temperatures for the U.S. overall. Rainfall was driest in 3 years but still 7th wettest of the past 35 years. Snowfall was the least in 8 years and 6th least in 35 years with much below average snowfall.
May got off to a very cold start with dozens of record cold temperatures this Mother's Day weekend with snow in the higher terrain of the Northeast, but a wholesale pattern shift in store for the next couple weekends going into Memorial Day weekend. The early Memorial Day weekend outlook shows the country trending 5th warmest of the past 35 years with nearly the entire country expected to have much above average temperatures with widespread 80s and even 90s.
This week (11-17 May) will show the cold exiting the U.S. but for the week overall the country trends 1F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years and 9th coolest of the past 35 years. But, a much warmer late week-weekend period! Rainfall is a bit wetter than last year with an early week threat for severe weather in the Central U.S. from Texas to Iowa. Overall the rainfall trends suggest 12th wettest in 35 years for the nation as a whole and much needed rainfall for drought areas in the Pacific Northwest.
Need to watch the tropics as the models are already getting excited about a potential system developing down near Cuba late this week into next week. The first name on the list this year is Arthur. If you haven't seen our 2020 hurricane outlook report, contact firstname.lastname@example.org
Next week (18-24 May): Winter to Summer with nearly the entire country trending above average temperatures. 2.8F warmer than last year, 7th warmest in 35 years. Expect a big surge in ON-LINE demand for seasonal sales. Driest in 4 years and 6th wettest of the past 35 years. This time of year it's more about thunderstorms, so not all day rain events.
Weather Trends has analyzed weather's influence on over 10,000 seasonal items using real Point-of-Sale (POS) data to define weather's role in sales using our Power of 1 Degree technology. But, it is interesting to note this also holds up for ON-LINE sales and Google search terms. We cross correlated our POS data for allergy medications with a Google search term "hay fever" and the correlation was 96%! So goes the weather, so goes sales at stores but also on-line. The Google Trend for "Hay Fever" shows for every 1F warmer in Spring (year-over-year) there is a 4.3% increase in search traffic, 10F warmer 43%.
The 2-week world outlook shows the pattern flip-flop with the U.S. going from cold to hot while Europe goes from hot to cold.
We hope all the Moms had a great weekend! Mrs. Captain Kirk and the little Angelina had fun baking on a cold/snowy weekend.