Captain's Log 12 Aug '23 Heat Building Except NE U.S.

Captain's Log
12 Aug '23: Happy Saturday! :)

If you like all things in the sky, you'll love tonight's peak of the Perseid Meteor Shower. Best in years with only 17% moon illumination vs last year's full moon. Best time is 11pm to 4am in the Northeast sky with expectations of 50 to 100 meteors per hour - that's a lot. Good luck! CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

log 1-min

We had a close call here at wt360 HQ with a confirmed EF1 tornado with 100 mph winds just 2.3 miles West of our offices. wt360 weather cameras caught the rain shrouded tornado with several transformers blowing in the distance. Weather Trends employees in the area saw plenty of large trees down and even watched a lawn tractor get lifted! Our wind gust at the office was 58 mph before the power went out briefly.

log 2-min

Season to date tornadoes across the U.S. are up +19% vs last year, +12% above average and most in 4 years with 1,218 total. A lull in activity likely here at the end of August, but then an uptick once again this Fall (Sep - Nov).

log 3-min

While there has certainly been some heatwaves in parts of the U.S. this Summer, the media sensationalism is a bit misleading. Meteorological Summer to date (1 June - 11 Aug) shows the U.S. trending the coolest in 6 years and only 16th warmest of the past 38 years. Rainfall up +11% vs last year and 19th wettest of the past 38 years (near average). The Northeast has been the cool spot this year. Canada has been hot, 4th hottest in 38 years. Europe the coolest in 3 years but still 8th warmest of the past 38 years. It's the year-on-year change in temperatures that has the greatest correlation to seasonal category sales. Many like AC, sun-care and cold beverages are actually down across the U.S. due to the cooler NATIOAL trends.

log 4-min

Last week (6-12 Aug) across the World showed the U.S. trending -0.2F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years but still 13th warmest of the past 38 years. Rainfall was +4% wetter than last year and 16th wettest of the past 38 years with above average national rainfall. These are slightly more favorable trends for back-2-school sales. The hot spot was clearly Texas.

log 5-min

This week (13-19 Aug) shows building heat in the Northwest and South Central U.S. while the Midwest and Northeast are generally cooler. The U.S. overall looks to trend +1.8F warmer than last year, warmest in 28 years and 3rd warmest in 38 years. Unfortunately the Northeast is still the cooler spot so demand for hot summer categories remains soft. Rainfall looks to dry out with -39% less rain, driest in 20 years and 2nd driest in 38 years. These are favorable trends for Summer consumable categories and clearance sales.

log 6-min

Next week (20-26 Aug) shows intense heat building in the South Central U.S. while the Northwest U.S. and Northeast remain much cooler. The U.S. overall again trends +1.8F warmer than last year and 2nd hottest of the past 38 years. Rainfall again down -73% vs last year and #1 driest in 38 years. These trends generally keep consumers in the Summer mindset and hurt back2school and early Fall merchandise starting to show up in stores. Need to watch the tropics as models have been hinting at waves coming of Africa where it is becoming increasingly wet - one source for our core season systems.

log 7-min

The World 2-week outlook (13-26 Aug) shows building heat for the Central U.S., Europe and China. The Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada trend cooler.

log 8-min

We hope you have a great weekend and week ahead. Don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out