Captain's Log 12 Oct '20 Warm, Cool then East Hurricane?

Captain's Log

Happy Monday! :)



La Niña continues to strengthen with rapidly cooling equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures and models now suggesting a strong to very strong La Niña this Winter well into 2021. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

12 OCT LOG 1

This is already creating very dry to drought like conditions across both North and South America and that is likely to expand into 2021. Combined with other ocean cycles like a cooler Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle and still warm Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) cycle it's not favorable for snow across the U.S. this Winter. More on that later.

12 OCT LOG 2

Last week (4-10 Oct) across the World shows the U.S. trending 2.2F warmer than last year, 5th warmest in 35 years with much above average national temperatures. Not favorable for Fall seasonal merchandise, but great for extending the outdoor season benefiting home center and garden sales. Canada, Russia, South America, India all trended warmer than last year, while China and Australia trended cooler. Europe was split cooler West, hotter East but overall a tad warmer than last year.

12 OCT LOG 3

Quantifying sales against weather is something our Power of 1 Degree technology has done over 10,000 times to not only determine how weather influenced sales but how they'll trend location-by-location a year-ahead by week for every mile on Earth. Looking at this Columbus Day holiday weekend (10-12 Oct) here in the U.S. we see a wholesale change from last year. The holiday weekend trended 10F warmer than last year making it the warmest in over 35 years, a big change from last year when it trended the coolest in 7 years. Applying this to our Power of 1 Degree sales rules of thumb, the decline in sales was very likely significant with soup sales off 10%, apparel down 30% and volatile categories like coats off 50%. The winners would be outdoor construction and lawn & garden categories.

12 OCT LOG 4

This week (12-18 Oct) shows some hope for a cool down in the Central U.S. and eventually the East Coast toward the weekend. Overall the week still trends 2.8F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 16th warmest of the past 35 years. The drier and less snowy trends continue, so again good for outdoor construction and garden categories, not so good for Fall cold weather categories.

12 OCT LOG 5

Next week (19-25 Oct) a brief bright spot this Fall with 0.5F cooler conditions nationally than a year ago but that's still near average national temperatures and 17th coolest of the past 35 years. Remains on the dry side trending driest in 7 years and 4th driest of the past 35 years, great news for American farmers wrapping up harvesting. Snowfall remains well below average and way down from last year's snowiest start to Fall in over 35 years.

12 OCT LOG 6

We're definitely not done with the hurricane season just yet with models hinting at a Hurricane Sandy scenario. This is something our year-ahead hurricane outlook suggested with a high risk threat to SE Florida into New England. Models show that potential around the 24th - 27th timeframe, so for now something to monitor if you live along the East Coast.

12 OCT LOG 7

The two week World outlook (12-25 Oct) shows very favorable conditions for seasonal Fall categories across Europe and Canada. It remains hot and dry in South America.

12 OCT LOG 8

We kept snow lovers waiting long enough, so here's the year-ahead snowfall outlook our clients saw many months ago. An overall down season and in fact likely to be less than forecast here with the potential for a very strong La Nina. The U.S. about 8% below average snowfall, up over last year's least conditions which were the least in 8 years. The two potential snowy spots with the greatest chance for above average snowfall would be the Pacific Northwest and MAYBE the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. The Lakes event may be one bigger storm, so it may not feel like a snowy Winter there either if it all comes in one storm. The big snow season? That's much more likely next Winter 2021-2022 as La Nina begins to collapse which very likely will the snowiest Winter 8 years and a top 5 in 36 years. :) So, hope on the horizon snow fans.

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.