Captain's Log 13 Jan '24 Frigid Polar Vortex is Here!

Captain's Log
13 January 2024: Happy Saturday. :)

We hope some of our seasonal supply side clients were able to stop by our booth at the Mid States Conference in Phoenix to meet up with Pam and Rebecca. It was pretty cold outside - coldest in 10 years and 2nd coldest in 40+. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

log 1-min

As wt360 warned months ago, flooding along the East Coast-Northeast could indeed be historic in the weeks and months ahead. The past two months have already been the #1 wettest in over 40 years for the East Coast and near historic totals in the Northeast. We have a lot of wet and snowy storms to go, so major urban flooding is highly likely here in 2024.

log 2-min

We picked up some ground with a snowy week across the U.S. bringing seasonal snowfall totals up from the #1 least to 6th least of the past 39 years. National snowfall is the least in 2 years, 6th least in 39 years, -23% vs last year and -30% vs average.

log 3-min

Snow Cover this morning has 47% of the country with some snow on the ground, most in 8 years, +8% above average and 4th most in 20 years. The bigger winners this past week were the Northeast and the Midwest.

log 4-min

Looks like Flu has peaked as of late December and now declining. It was a 5-weeks later than last year's very early peak at Thanksgiving.

log 5-min

Last Week (7-13 Jan) across the World shows the U.S. trending -5.7F colder than last year, coldest in 8 years, 17th coldest of the past 39 years. Rainfall was +184% wetter than last year and #1 wettest in over 39 years, while snowfall was up +804% over LY, most in 13 years and 3rd most in 39 years. These were very favorable weather trends for seasonal merchandise sales. Canada was also very favorable for must have Winter seasonal categories trending the coldest in 4 years. The U.K. was the coldest in 14 years, while Europe was the coldest in 37 years. All very favorable for must have Winter merchandise (coats, boots, hot beverages, auto batteries, snow accessories).

log 6-min

The trends will get even more extreme now that the Polar Vortex is making a full plunge into the U.S. -55F temperatures have already invaded Montana and that cold will spread across the entire U.S. modifying as it gets to the East Coast. The PV will lift out the 4th week taking the brutally cold Arctic air with it. It will be back in February!

log 7-min

This week (14-20 Jan) Martin Luther King Jr week shows the full onslaught of the Polar Vortex in the U.S. with national temperatures trending -16.7F colder than last year, coldest in 30 years and 2nd coldest in over 39 years. Auto battery failures will be near record levels across much of the U.S. Snowfall +73% more than last year, most in 8 years and 6th most in 39 years. Another Deep South threat with the potential to move up the East Coast early next week. Rainfall down -47%, driest in 3 years and 10th driest in 39 years.

log 8-min

The 6-day snowfall forecast (13-18 Jan) shows a Deep South snow event that should turn up the East Coast. TBD just how strong the coastal low will become and whether it turns up the East Coast or heads out to sea. For the U.S. overall, the 6-day period trends +107% more than last year, most in 4 years, 4th most in 39 years with 70% of the U.S. impacted.

log 9-min

Next week (21-27 Jan) show the typical January Thaw right on schedule. Temperatures finally trend +2.1F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 13th warmest of the past 39 years. Snowfall down -79% vs last year, least in 4 years and 3rd least in 39 years. Rainfall way up +15% wetter, wettest in 14 years and 4th wettest of the past 39 years. Very concerned about the East Coast with major flood risk! Looks like California gets another big rain and Sierra snow event. Snow is much below last year's levels, so they need it.

log 10-min

The World 2-week outlook (14-27 Jan) shows the PV lifting out of North America late in the period and headed toward Northern Europe and Siberia. It will be back in the U.S. in February.

log 11-min

World snowfall is still heavy across Canada, Eastern Europe and Russia.

Have a great MLK Jr. weekend and week ahead. Don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates:

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- Captain Kirk out