Captain's Log 14 May '23 Pre Memorial Day Sales Surge

Captain's Log
14 May '23 Sunday: Happy Mother's Day!

Models continue to show the potential for a strong El Nino in the next few months. The Equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm rapidly after a 3 year cold La Nina phase. This will have major impacts to the World's weather patterns over the next 1-2 years. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.


The shifting climate cycles will bring droughts toward Asia - India with the wetter trends already materializing in the U.S.


Dry to drought phases across the U.S. peaked in early November last year with 85% of the country dry and now only 45% of the country is in dry to drought phases with a huge improvement with the Winter and Spring rains. Normal for this time of year is 45.3% of the country in dry phases so we're finally there after a very dry 2.5 years due to La Nina. wt360 expects this wetter less drought trend to continue into a very wet U.S. by this time next year, droughts end with floods!


Tornadoes continue their active pace with 731 year to date, +128 more this past week. Season to date is now +25% above average and in the top 16% of history in terms of number of tornadoes. This is a slight plus for home centers and rebuilding material categories that benefit from storm damage.


Last week (7-13 May) was a favorable week for seasonal merchandise sales in the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. trended +0.2F warmer than a year ago, warmest in 5 years and 4th warmest of the past 38 years. We are up against an equally good period a year ago so the sales lift YOY may be somewhat comparable. Rainfall was up +10% over last year, wettest in 4 years and 14th wettest of the past 38 years. Much needed rainfall in parts of the Southwest and Plains still plagued with drought. Canada was the warmest in 25 years so a strong surge in sales driven by the weather. Generally cool across Europe with less favorable Spring conditions.


This week (14-20 May) trends -1.9F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years but still 12th warmest of the past 38 years. The best spot for Spring merchandise sales gains is in the Pacific Northwest with near record warmth while the Eastern 2/3rds of the country is generally less favorable for hot seasonal items. Rainfall down -23% vs last year, driest in 9 years and 4th driest of the past 38 years is favorable for outdoor dining and overall store traffic. More much needed rainfall in the South-Central U.S.


U.S. year-over-year temperature trends from 1 April to 31 May show the stronger periods for seasonal sales gains were in middle April around Easter and the week following, the first weekend of May and now hopefully another big surge for the week prior to Memorial Day weekend.

log7-min Next week (21-27 May) before Memorial Day weekend shows a big surge of warmer weather sweeping across much of the U.S. National temperatures look to be up +3.8F over last year, warmest in 3 years and 10th warmest of the past 38. Significant YOY sales gains for hot seasonal categories, even AC from Texas to the Upper Midwest. The East and especially Southeast are still a little soft compared to last year. Rainfall down -78% and #1 least in 38 years does benefit outdoor categories so lawn and garden should see major sales gains.


The 2-week World Outlook (14-27 May) shows the best regions for Spring seasonal sales gains are in the U.S. and Canada (especially the Western half), Eastern Europe and China.


We end today's video with some hints on where Captain Kirk took Mrs. Captain Kirk and the little Angelina this Mother's Day weekend. If you're in the NJ area, it's obvious. :) Exit 105 GSP, about 1.5 hours East of wt360 HQ, they put palm trees in the sand...where could it be?


We hope all the Moms have a great day, the most important job in the World raising little humans! :)

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- Captain Kirk out.