Captains Log 15 Aug '21 Tropics Alive

Captain's Log

Happy Sunday! :)

We can officially say "Live from One Bethlehem Plaza" as Weather Trends has made the long awaited move into our new headquarters in downtown Bethlehem, PA. Tonight's fireworks here in downtown Bethlehem will bring an end to the 10-day Musikfest...we'll hopefully have some cool video to share tomorrow on our social media pages. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.


A recap of last week across the World (8-14 August) shows the U.S. trending +0.5F warmer than last year making it the warmest in 11 years, 2nd warmest in 36 years for the nation overall. This was certainly a strong finish for hot Summer seasonal categories, helping to clear out inventories as retailers are in full back-2-school/work mode. Rainfall was 8% wetter than last year and 12th wettest of the past 36 years.

Warm spots were in India, Canada where it was the warmest in 6 years, Russia the warmest in 5 and Australia (winter) warmest in 4. Some much needed rain for Brazil, but not entirely in areas that need it most with a severe drought continuing.


The big threats this week will be the tropics which have come to life with a favorable MJO cycle with soon to be 3 named systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. Tropical Storm Fred will make landfall in the Pan Handle of Florida Monday with the biggest impact being heavier rain throughout the Southeast. Next up will be Grace that will enter the Gulf later in the week. Need to watch systems like Grace as they can intensify quickly this time of year.

3-minThis Week (15-21 August) across the U.S. trends a tad cooler than last year but still 7th warmest of the past 36 year with above average national temperatures. This is the typical transition period when retailers start to benefit from cooler and wetter year-over-year weather conditions to boost sales for back2school and early Fall merchandise. Cool and Wet weather tends to end the vacation mind set and gets consumers off the beach, lake and thinking about getting ready for Fall. Rainfall is up +82% thanks to Tropical Storm Fred in the Southeast, making the week the 6th wettest of the past 36 years.


Next week (22-28 August) looks to trend 2.6F cooler than last year but still 11th warmest of the past 36 years. A dramatic cool down for the West and North Central U.S. will certainly bring a boost to early Fall seasonal merchandise. 37% drier than a year ago, driest in 6 years and 6th driest of the past 36 years. The wet spots remains in the Southeast.


The World 2-week outlook (15-28 August) shows warm Eastern U.S., cooler across Canada and Europe while Russia remains very hot.


We end with the first visitors to our new HQ - super Angelina Kirk and Mommy Simona Kirk. Both gave a big thumbs up. We're doing a final TV studio certification test this weekend, so soon you'll see us live on national TV...Top Secret for now. Warp Speed Ahead. :)

Have a great week folks, and don't forget to follow us on social media for updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.