Captain's Log 17 Jun '23 Cool & Dry Pattern

Captain's Log
17 June 2023: Happy Saturday! :)

Hard to believe it's already Father's Day weekend which is trending the coolest in 4 years with below average national temperatures. An overall soft trend continues for hot Summer seasonal items. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

17 june log 1-minDrought was making huge improvement across 59% of the country in middle May, but the recent dry trends have resulted in a temporary uptick in coverage. U.S. dry to drought phases peaked at 85% (a near record) back on 1 November 2022 and then dipped to 41% on 23 May with a wet pattern and now back to 54% dry coverage as of 13 June. Slightly unusual to have the cooler pattern not also trend wetter, but emerging El Nino patterns tend to be wet cycles 84% of the time suggesting the recent dry trends are temporary.

17 june log 2-min

El Niño is clearly here with World weather patterns showing signs of the change. Typically Asia becomes dry while the Americas get wetter. China and India have been very dry this year after many wet years, a clear sign of El Niño conditions. Models still show the potential for a strong El Nino peaking this Fall but then weakening as we go into Winter. It's important to note that EVERY El Niño is different as there are so many other cycles in tandem to consider. This past Winter was proof of that with a 3rd year La Nina bringing historic snow to California which is usually very dry in La Niña conditions.

17 june log 3-min

Last Week (11-17 June) across the World shows the U.S. trending -6.0F cooler than last year, coolest in 24 years, 4th coolest in 38 years with much below average national temperatures. This is a huge negative for Summer seasonal categories like AC, cold beverages, apparel and other items that benefit from hot weather. Rainfall was up +38% over last year, most in 4 years but still 12th driest of the past 38 years. The U.K. was the most favorable area of Summer seasonal category sales with the hottest conditions in over 38 years. China and India were also very hot and dry with drought concerns developing.

17 june log 4-min

This week (18-24 June) shows a warming trend in the Central U.S. while the West Coast and Southeast have below average temperatures. The U.S. overall trends -1.8F cooler than last year, coolest in 19 years and 8th coolest of the past 38 years. This is again a negative for the hot Summer categories. Rainfall up +43% over last year but still 11th driest of the past 38 years nationally.

17 june log 5-min

Normally El Nino's can suppress the tropical waves coming off Africa due to upper level wind shear, but that doesn't appear to be the case as of yet. A stronger wave has a good chance to become Tropical Storm Bret later this week and head in the direction of the Virgin Islands.

17 june log 6-min

Next week (25 Jun - 1 Jul) the week before the 4th shows some improving trends for Summer seasonal items. Hotter weather looks to expand across the West and Central U.S. with near to slightly above average temperatures in the East. National temperatures look to trend +1.1F warmer than last year and 9th warmest of the past 38 years. Rainfall still -47% drier than last year making it the #1 driest in over 38 years. Warmer/Drier trends are favorable for consumable food categories, cold beverages, AC, sun care, and pool chemicals.

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The World 2-week outlook (18 Jun - 1 Jul) shows improving trends in the U.S. and Europe for Summer items.

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We hope you have a great Father's Day and week ahead. Check out the end of today's video if you like the USAF Thunderbirds as seen live from Ocean City Maryland last week. 30 minute show condensed to 3 minutes. Enjoy.

17 june log 9-min

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- Captain Kirk out