Captain's Log 19 Sep '21 Much Warmer Fall

Captain's Log

Happy Sunday! :)

Look for weather trends in the news this week with a webinar on Conversations in Retail and on NPR Marketplace (Monday 6:30pm). With both we talk about our Fall-Winter outlook and how it will influence seasonal sales. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

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One of the climate cycles that will again play a role in our year-ahead outlook is the double-dip La Niña that looks to strengthen going into late Fall. This in part suggests a very warm and unfavorable Q3 for most retailers but a much better Q4.

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Using our Power of 1 degree technology, we can quantify how this much warmer middle September weekend was very unfavorable for Fall merchandise sales. Good for late Summer categories and especially allergy and asthma medications with the peak of the Fall allergy season pretty severe.

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Areas in the East that have had excessive rainfall, also have excessive mosquitoes so they're way up as well. Hang in there as a more favorable Q4 is on the way.


So while the calendar may say Fall arrives this Wednesday, we may be waiting quite some time for stronger seasonal merchandise sales.


Last week (12-18) across the World shows the U.S. trending +4.1F warmer than last year, 4th warmest in 36 years with much above average national temperatures. The Pacific Northwest would be the most favorable spot for cold seasonal merchandise. Rainfall was down 8% vs last year but still a bit above average.


Canada and China were warmer than LY while Europe, Russia, Australia, India and Brail trended cooler.


Drought conditions worsened with 58% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases, the most widespread in 8 years. Average is about 50%.


This week (19-25 Sept) the U.S. again trends +0.9F warmer than last year, 11th warmest in 36 years. The Northwest and Rockies remain the bright spot with cooler more favorable trends for early Fall merchandise. Briefly cooler in the East before another warm up sweeps most of the country going into next week. Rainfall way up ahead of this cold front, 90% wetter than last year, wettest in 3 years and 11th wettest in 36 years. Even some snow in the higher terrain of the Northern Rocky Mountains.


Need to watch the tropics as we're already up to 17 named systems and more are coming off Africa. Weather Trends projected 20-23 named storms this year so we're getting close. Florida and the Southeast are still at moderately high risk for a land falling hurricane well into October.


Next week (26 Sep - 2 Oct) again +4.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 3rd warmest in 36 years. These are very unfavorable trends for Fall seasonal merchandise sales. Great for home centers and extending the outdoor building/construction season and farmers getting ready to harvest. The U.S. overall looks to trend 90% drier than a year ago, #1 driest in 36 years.


The World 2-week aggregate outlook shows warm U.S. and Canada, cooler across Europe and especially Russia and still very hot in China and Brazil.

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

-Captain Kirk out.