Captain's Log 22 Apr '23 Much Cooler Pattern Ahead

Captain's Log

22 April 2023: Happy Earth Day Saturday. :)

It's Earth Day 2023 today, hope you're enjoying something outside. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

LOG 10-min

A recap of Spring (1 March - 22 April) across the World shows a tale of two halves across the U.S. with cooler conditions West, warmer East. Spring to date is trending -0.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 5 years and 12th coolest of the past 38 years with below average U.S. temperatures. Rainfall -6% drier than last year but still 18th wettest of the past 38 years with slightly above average rainfall. Snowfall way up +59% vs last year, most in 5 years and 4th most of the past 38 years.

LOG 1-min

Overall, these are negative trends for seasonal merchandise sales but conditions did improve the past couple weeks with a big warm here in middle April. That trend is now reversing again with a cooler late April and May ahead, again negative for many seasonal categories.

LOG 2-min

Drought has made huge improvements over the near record peak back in November when over 85% of the country was in dry to drought phases. Today only 47% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases which is the least coverage in 3 years and now near average for this time of year. WT360 expects steady improvement throughout 2023 and into 2024 with wetter than average conditions for a majority of the U.S. in the months ahead.

LOG 3-min

As expected, Tornadoes continue to be at near record pace with 568 to date, adding another 49 since last week. This is the fastest start in 11 years, +47% above average and +3% more than last year placing the count in the top 5% of history.

LOG 4-min

A recap of last week (16-22 April) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.4F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years but still 13th coolest of the past 38 years with below average national temperatures. The East Coast was the most favorable spot for Spring category sales. Rainfall was down -13% vs last year and 16th driest of the past 38 years. Snowfall was down -14%, least in 3 years but still 9th most of the past 38 years. Similar trends across Canada. China and India were the hot spots.

LOG 5-min

This week (23-29 April) shows a big cool down for 80% of the U.S. while the West Coast gets a warmup. National temperatures are -3F cooler than last year making it the coolest end to April in 18 years, 3rd coldest of the past 38 years with much below average national temperatures. Rainfall up +31% vs last year, wettest in 3 years and 19th wettest of the past 38. Some much needed rain for the parched South-Central Plains. Expect a slow down in YOY sales trends for seasonal sales.

LOG 6-min

Next week (30 Apr - 6 May) can you believe we're already taking May! The U.S. continues on the cool side with national temperatures -1.2F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years and 12th coolest of the past 38 years. Rainfall #1 driest in 38 years, likely overdone but a cool/dry week is OK for outdoor garden categories but at the expense of hot Spring seasonal items like cold beverage, fans, pest control, etc.

LOG 7-min

The World 2-week outlook (23 Apr - 6 May) shows the cool spots in the Eastern half of the U.S. and Eastern Europe. China and India cool off a bit as well.

LOG 8-min

Our Spring newsletter was sent out last week, if you missed it CLICK HERE. here.

We end with a tour of Longwood Gardens during the peak of the tulip blooms. A spectacular garden destination worth visiting!

LOG 9-min

Have a great week ahead and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out.