Captain's Log 22 Apr '23 Much Cooler Pattern Ahead

22 April 2023: Happy Earth Day Saturday. :)

It's Earth Day 2023 today, hope you're enjoying something outside. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



A recap of Spring (1 March - 22 April) across the World shows a tale of two halves across the U.S. with cooler conditions West, warmer East. Spring to date is trending -0.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 5 years and 12th coolest of the past 38 years with below average U.S. temperatures. Rainfall -6% drier than last year but still 18th wettest of the past 38 years with slightly above average rainfall. Snowfall way up +59% vs last year, most in 5 years and 4th most of the past 38 years.



Overall, these are negative trends for seasonal merchandise sales but conditions did improve the past couple weeks with a big warm here in middle April. That trend is now reversing again with a cooler late April and May ahead, again negative for many seasonal categories.



Drought has made huge improvements over the near record peak back in November when over 85% of the country was in dry to drought phases. Today only 47% of the U.S. is in dry to drought phases which is the least coverage in 3 years and now near average for this time of year. WT360 expects steady improvement throughout 2023 and into 2024 with wetter than average conditions for a majority of the U.S. in the months ahead.



As expected, Tornadoes continue to be at near record pace with 568 to date, adding another 49 since last week. This is the fastest start in 11 years, +47% above average and +3% more than last year placing the count in the top 5% of history.



A recap of last week (16-22 April) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.4F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years but still 13th coolest of the past 38 years with below average national temperatures. The East Coast was the most favorable spot for Spring category sales. Rainfall was down -13% vs last year and 16th driest of the past 38 years. Snowfall was down -14%, least in 3 years but still 9th most of the past 38 years. Similar trends across Canada. China and India were the hot spots.



This week (23-29 April) shows a big cool down for 80% of the U.S. while the West Coast gets a warmup. National temperatures are -3F cooler than last year making it the coolest end to April in 18 years, 3rd coldest of the past 38 years with much below average national temperatures. Rainfall up +31% vs last year, wettest in 3 years and 19th wettest of the past 38. Some much needed rain for the parched South-Central Plains. Expect a slow down in YOY sales trends for seasonal sales.



Next week (30 Apr - 6 May) can you believe we're already taking May! The U.S. continues on the cool side with national temperatures -1.2F cooler than last year, coolest in 3 years and 12th coolest of the past 38 years. Rainfall #1 driest in 38 years, likely overdone but a cool/dry week is OK for outdoor garden categories but at the expense of hot Spring seasonal items like cold beverage, fans, pest control, etc.



The World 2-week outlook (23 Apr - 6 May) shows the cool spots in the Eastern half of the U.S. and Eastern Europe. China and India cool off a bit as well.



Our Spring newsletter was sent out last week, if you missed it CLICK HERE. here.

We end with a tour of Longwood Gardens during the peak of the tulip blooms. A spectacular garden destination worth visiting!



Have a great week ahead and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out.