Captain's Log 23 Mar '20 Warm, Wet then Dry - FLU RISK SOUTH!
Written by Bill Kirk
March 23, 2020
Good morning. Millions of us now learn to embrace our new TEMPORARY way of life of working remotely, limiting our social interactions, buying necessities on line but hopefully remembering that we're all in this together and GOOD will ultimately prevail in these difficult times...this too shall pass. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW
Weather Trends transitioned to a 100% remote environment early last week in response to our governor's mandate and it was the right thing to do to hopefully QUICKLY end the spread of this virus. We were very well prepared to weather this storm as our technology systems are cloud based (Amazon AWS and MSA-Management Science Associates) across 8 data centers in 5 geographically separate areas around the U.S. and our team is scattered across 5 states...we're here to help! Our message to our clients.
This week (23-29 March) the U.S. overall looks to trend +4.1F warmer than last year which is the warmest last week of March in 8 years and 7th warmest in 35 years. Rainfall remains on the wet side with more much needed rain in California. Nationally the week trends wettest in 11 years, 4th wettest in 35 years but snowfall is well below average and 17th least in 35 years.
Next week (30 March - 5 March) shows the West warming up with the nation trending +6.9F warmer than a year ago making the start of April the 4th warmest in 35 years for the U.S. overall. FINALLY, rainfall is the least in 25 years and 2nd least in 35 years with much below average national rainfall - we'll take it. Very likely the start of a drier pattern in the weeks ahead as La Nina bring a big pattern shift later this year into 2021. Snowfall is the least in 8 years, 2nd least in 35 years nationally.
The first few weeks of March have shown one of the greatest year-over-year changes toward warmer weather in the U.S. in 125 years with the month trending 3rd warmest of the past 35 years, wholesale change from the past few years. We are concerned about Australia as they enter their Fall Flu season with the weather not helping.
The wt360 long range outlook shows the coldest/wettest conditions in 8 years down under and that typically leads to an early onset of Flu (type A, B). Combined with the heightened threat of Coronavirus, it will be an especially threatening season ahead.
Weather Trends year-ahead outlook for Q1 (Feb - Apr) is off to a great start here in the U.S. trending 88% accurate on weekly year-ahead precipitation forecasts and 86% on year-ahead temperature trends. Many called for a cold snowy Spring more similar to 2013 and 2014 and that's not happening. Sadly these great spring conditions ordinarily result in very high demand for Spring seasonal merchandise but things changed with COVID19. The retailer winners are clearly Amazon, Wal-Mart, Sam's Club, Costco, Target as we order on-line to weather this storm for a month or two.
Very proud of the team here at weathertrends360 who asked for $2,500 to buy some food store gift cards and pass those out via snail mail, churches, etc. to the elderly, folks recently laid off, under employed and churches.
Our corporate mascot is a stuffed little super hero doll, but the wt360 employees proved they are the real super heroes and they come in all shapes and sizes...the little Angelina Kirk here. Look for more of this from team wt360 as we weather this together! Be safe and healthy and may God bless you all.