Captain's Log 24 Apr '22 Cold with late Frost & Freezes!

Happy last Sunday of April! :)

We're still in the midst of a moderate La Nina weather pattern, but we expect that to break down this Fall and transition to an El Nino event as we go into 2023. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.



This is just one of 24 climate cycles we factor in along with trillions upon trillions of statistics to generate our year-ahead global forecasts. Zooming into the period around Christmas 2022 we see the coldest and snowiest season in 5 years as the La Nina breaks down. For now, that's all we have to say about that! ;)



A recap of last week around the World (17-23 April) shows the U.S. trending +3.5F warmer than last year but still 7th coldest of the past 37 years with below average national temperatures. Rainfall was up +39% more than last year and 12th wettest of the past 37 years with above average national rainfall. Snowfall was -22% less than a year ago, but still well above average and 5th most of the past 37 years.



Canada was near record cold trending #1 coldest in over 37 years for the 3rd week of April, a big negative for Spring merchandise sales. The U.K. had more favorable Spring conditions.



This week (24-30 April) will trend -3.8F colder than last year, coldest in 14 years and 9th coldest in 37 years with below average national temperatures. This is a big negative for Spring merchandise sales. The most favorable area will be the Southwest and parts of the Southeast. Rainfall -17% drier than last year, driest in 7 years and 8th driest of the past 37 years with well below average national precipitation. The East Coast looks to be very dry which tends to make for more allergy suffering with trees and grass in full bloom for most.



As Weather Trends warned a year ahead, a late frost and freeze is likely both this week and into the first couple days of May. Certainly poses some risk to ag interests though out the Corn Belt.



Next week (1-7 May) trends -1F colder than a year ago, 11th coldest of the past 37 years with continued below average national temperatures. The most favorable area for earl Spring merchandise sales is from Texas to the Southeast. Also dry in these regions, so pollen will be high with prolonged allergy suffering. Some moderation in temperatures across the North, but a frosty start to May!



The 2-week World outlook (24 April - 7 May) shows the colder weather dominating Canada and the Northern tier of the U.S. and colder across Europe as well. These are negative trends for overall retail sales and especially Spring category sales.



If you love Spring flowers and don't suffer from allergies...visit Longwood Gardens in Southeast Pennsylvania for a spectacular display of tulips and early Spring flowers! They only last a couple weeks, in part why the crowd was huge this past weekend...worth the trip.

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates:

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-Captain Kirk out.