Captain's Log 24 Jun '23 Coolest June in 19 Years!

Captain's Log
24 June '23: Hope you're having a great Saturday. :)

Tornadoes were active across the South bringing the season to date tally +3% above average and last year with 961 year-to-date. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

log 1-min

Last week (18-24 June) across the World shows another very cool week here in the U.S. trending -2.3F cooler than last year, coolest in 19 years and 5th coolest of the past 38 years with much below average national temperatures. Rainfall was up +95% over last year, 16th wettest of the past 38 years (above average). These are huge negative trends for Summer seasonal categories, especially AC, Auto parts like batteries, anti-freeze and cold beverages. Coolest in 6 years across Canada, while the U.K. was the warmest in 3 years with more favorable Summer seasonal category demand. Very cold in Russia.

log 2-min

The tropics are active with two named storms (Bret going through the Eastern Caribbean, and Cindy about to make a right turn into the open Atlantic) in a very unusual spot this early in the season. The systems came off Africa and headed to the Caribbean, only the 5th time in 150+ years to have systems develop this far out in the Atlantic. Fortunately both are mainly fish storms and will not impact the U.S. Fast starts to the season like this almost always end up with an above average U.S. hurricane season.

log 3-min

This week (25 Jun - 1 Jul) before Independence Day shows the U.S. trending a hair above last year by +0.1F and 14th warmest of the past 38 years, but the cooler spots remain in the population centers of the West Coast and East Coast. Texas is the hot spot and finally dries out with a lull in thunderstorm activity. Overall another weak trend for hot Summer seasonal items outside the South Central U.S. Rainfall down -22% vs last year and least in 12 years, but much needed heavier rain finally moving through the Corn Belt. The near drought conditions in the East are being eliminated with a much wetter pattern.

log 4-min

The late Spring - Summer temperature trends have been very unfavorable for hot Summer items, especially here in June trending the coolest in 19 years. July likely to continue the cooler YOY trends, trending coolest in 8 years. This will lead to excess inventory levels of Summer seasonal items and steeper markdowns. WTI warned of this a year ago for our clients.

log 5-min

Next week (2-8 July) shows the U.S. trending -1.3F cooler than last year, coolest in 8 years and 15th warmest of the past 38 years. Rainfall down -41% nationally vs last year, driest in 5 years and 5th driest in 38 years, but continued wetter trends across the growing regions and Corn Belt. These are soft trends for seasonal categories.

log 6-min

The World 2-week outlook (24 Jun - 8 Jul) shows cool trends across the U.S. Great Lakes, East Coast and hotter across the South. Europe a bit above average and very hot in China.

log 7-min

We hope you have a great week ahead and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out