Captain's Log 24 Oct '21 Mild & Wet...Pattern Shift in November!

Captain's Log

Happy Sunday! :)

Last week (17-23 Oct) across the World shows the U.S. trending 1.4F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 11th warmest of the past 36 years with above average national temperatures. Rainfall was 67% less than a year ago, driest in 8 years and 6th driest of the past 36 years with below average national rainfall. Snowfall was down 98% vs a year ago, least in 3 years and 15th least in 36 years (below average).

24 oct 2021 log 1-min

Canada and the U.K. were the warmest in 4 years while Europe and Russia were warmer than last year. The cooler spots were China trending the coldest in 19 years, Brazil coolest in 10 years, Australia coolest in 5 and India cooler than LY.

24 oct 2021 log 2-min

This Week (24-30 Oct) trends a whopping +8.3F warmer than last year across the U.S. overall making it the warmest end to the month in 5 years, 6th warmest in 36 years. Rainfall is on the heavy side with a system in the West and heavier rain in the Northeast. 46% wetter nationally than last year, wettest in 6 years and 2nd wettest in 36 years with much above average national rainfall. The warm trends are a huge negative for Fall cold seasonal merchandise sales, the wet weather a minor plus.

24 oct 2021 log 3-min

The 6-day snowfall forecast shows the heaviest snow in the Sierras of California and the higher terrain of the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains.

Weather Trends YEAR-AHEAD snowfall outlook shows an earlier and more intense snowy Winter for the U.S. overall with the snowiest conditions in 3 years. December to January look to be the big months as opposed to February last year. Overall snowfall looks to be up 18% nationally with a favored storm track from Arkansas to the Northeast.

24 oct 2021 log 4-min

One of many factors and trillions upon trillions of statistics that generate our forecasts is a strong La Nina winter that will likely hang on well into spring 2022. This is a second year La Nina event which is different than last year's first year moderate event.

24 oct 2021 log 5-min

Next week (31 Oct - 6 Nov) shows some hope for seasonal merchandise sales with a rare colder trend nationally. Overall the U.S. looks to trend 3.5F cooler than last year but still 12th warmest of the past 36 years. The Western two-thirds of the country is much colder than last year and that should help to drive some seasonal merchandise sales. Rainfall about 27% wetter than last year but still very dry trending 6th driest of the past 36 years. Snowfall also the least in 5 years and well below average.

24 oct 2021 log 6-minThe 2-week world outlook (24 Oct - 6 Nov) shows generally unfavorable trends for Fall seasonal merchandise sales compared to this period a year ago across North America. The cooler spots are generally in the Middle East.

24 oct 2021 log 7-min

We hope you have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- Captain Kirk out.