Captain's Log 25 Nov '23 Cold Thanksgiving now Warming Trend

Captain's Log
25 Nov '23: Happy Saturday! :)

Black Friday sales were apparently strong despite inflation and the weather certainly helped. Last year was the warmest in 5 years, this year the coldest in 10 years helped Fall-Winter seasonal merchandise sales get a much-needed surge this weekend. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

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A secondary plus was a healthier population vs this time last year when Flu was nearing a very early peak and most intense early season in 13 years. Cases this year are down -40% vs last year with the most active cases across the Southern tier of the U.S.

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Last week (19-25 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending +1.6F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 17th warmest of the past 38 years. Fortunately, the cold weather arrived over Thanksgiving weekend. Rainfall was up +52% vs last year, wettest in 3 years and 16th wettest of the past 38 years. Snowfall up +216% vs last year, most in 4 years and 19th snowiest of the past 38 years. These were slightly positive trends for cold seasonal merchandise sales due in large part to the much colder Thanksgiving weekend. Canada, China and the Middle East were the most favorable areas for stronger Fall seasonal sales.

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Season-to-date snowfall across the U.S. is trending -46% less vs last year, -35% below average and 9th least of the past 38 years. The heaviest snow has been in the Rocky Mountains, Upper Plains and Maine.

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This week (26 Nov - 2 Dec) starts off cool but a gradual warming trend looks to set up. National temperatures are -0.5F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 19th warmest of the past 38 years, slightly below average. Rainfall is -35% less than last year and 16th driest of the past 38 years, with snowfall also down -37% vs last year, 8th least of the past 38 years. This is a favorable early week for Fall-Winter seasonal merchandise sales.

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The 6-day (25-30 Nov) snowfall outlook shows the Central U.S. snowstorm winding down while the first Lake Effect snows quick in for the Great Lakes. Overall the 6-day snowfall trends are +4% more than last year, most in 4 years but still 15th least of the past 38 years and -34% below average.

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Next Week (3-9 Dec) shows a bigger warming trend across the entire U.S. with national temperatures trending +0.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 8 years and 6th warmest of the past 38 years. Compared to last year, the Gulf Coast states are much colder with some lift in YOY seasonal sales. Rainfall +30% wetter than last year and 16th wettest of the past 38 years, while snowfall is -85% less than a year ago and #1 least in 38+ years. These are negative trends for cold seasonal merchandise, but OK for store traffic and holiday gift sales.

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The World 2-week outlook (26 Nov - 9 Dec) shows the warming trend across North America, while Europe turns much colder. At has been very snowy across Russia-Siberia and this will eventually translate into colder Winter weather for North America later in December through early March!

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The World 2-week Snowfall outlook shows the snowiest spots in Eastern Canada, Eastern Europe, Western Russia and Central Siberia.

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We end today's video with the sights and sounds of a Longwood Garden's Christmas. If you've never been there, it's definitely worth adding to your list.

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Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out