Captain's Log 26 Sept '21 Very Unfavorable Q3 for Fall Merchandise

Captain's Log

Happy Sunday! :)

We discussed our Q3-Q4 outlook with the team at Conversations on Retail down in Bentonville Arkansas last week, unfortunately the Q3 outlook is about as bad as it can get for early Fall merchandise. Also spoke with NPR Marketplace talking about how we help big and small businesses. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

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Last Week (19-25 Sept) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.3F warmer than last year, 13th warmest in 36 years with above average national temperatures. If there was a favorable spot for Fall merchandise it was the Rocky Mountains. Rainfall was 104% more than last year, wettest in 3 years and 9th wettest of the past 36 years.

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Canada was the warmest in 7 years, U.K. was the warmest in 15 years, driest in 8 years and China was the hottest/wettest in over 36 years. The cooler more favorable areas for early Fall merchandise was Central-Eastern Europe and Russia.

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This Week (26 Sep - 2 Oct) more of the same with the U.S. trending +4.9F warmer than last year, warmest in 4 years and 3rd hottest of the past 36 years with much above average national temperatures. Particularly unfavorable for early Fall merchandise in the Central U.S. Rainfall 28% drier than last year and driest in 18 years, 5th driest in 36 years. Where the desperately need rain in the Southwest they'll get some. Even some snow in the higher terrain of the Pacific Northwest.

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Next Week (3-9 Oct) it gets worse...+1.3F warmer than last year, warmest in 24 years and 2nd hottest in 36 years for the U.S. overall. The bright spot would be the western half of the country that has below average temperatures, but still much warmer than last year. Nationally 48% drier than last year, driest in 35 years, 2nd driest in 36 years. These warm/dry trends are good for the home centers, garden centers and outdoor activities, but a big negative for cold weather Fall merchandise. Unfortunately these trends will likely continue for much of October, maybe a brief bright spot around Columbus Day weekend.

log 5-min

The hurricane season remains on a torrid pace with 19 named systems so far with several more named systems likely in the next couple weeks. Major category 4 hurricane Sam looks to spare the U.S. but close for Bermuda. More systems off Africa and something could develop in the Caribbean and head toward South Florida next week, so we're not out of the woods for the next 30+ days.

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The World outlook (26 Sep - 9 Oct) shows the very warm unfavorable Fall trends in North America, Alaska is a bright spot for colder temperatures. Even Europe looks to see a warm up slowing sales trends for Fall categories.

We hope you have a great week, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

- CEO Captain Kirk out.