Captain's Log 27 April '20 Warming Trend, Hurricanes and Flu
Written by Bill Kirk
April 27, 2020
Happy Monday! :)
The good news is we're starting to see a declining trend with COVID19 and traditional
Flu has gone below baseline bringing a near end to the season which was intense with 3 unusual spikes. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
Clients know that Weather Trends predicts both the weather a year ahead and sales outcomes for thousands of seasonal items you and I buy every day. Today we show some our Fall 2020-Winter 2021 outlook and how this influences the onset of traditional Flu.
We have a cool/drier less humid start to September in the Southeast and combined with kids going back to school in early August (earliest in the nation) we anticipate an early start to Flu for areas like Asheville NC. But then the rest of Fall looks to be warmer and drier with more humid conditions so we expect a 5 week later start to the Flu season in the New York City area. Good news to buy the medical industry more time. Later start, later peak and we expect that in early February as opposed to last season which peaked very early around Christmas time.
Spring 2020 started off very warm in the U.S. but the past couple weeks have been on the cool side nationally. That is about to end with the nation now showing a warming trend which will be nearly nationwide by this weekend (2-3 May), even the Northeast!
This week (27 April - 3 May) shows really warm weather for the Western 2/3rds of the country with the East cool start but a warm finish. Overall the U.S. looks to trend +3.6F warmer than last year and 4th warmest of the past 35 years with much above average national temperatures. Rainfall is the wettest in 3 years and 10th wettest of the past 35 but a decrease in severe weather activity this week. Expect a bigger surge in on-line sales for Spring seasonal items with the warming trend.
Next week (4-10 May) shows a bigger cool down for the West while the warmer weather move East with less extreme conditions. While 3.9F cooler than last year, the nation is still likely to trend 12th warmest of the past 35 years, well above average. Rainfall could be heavy with the wettest conditions in 17 years for the U.S. overall.
The World overall shows the cool spots are limited to Australia (Fall down under), Central Brazil, Eastern Europe, Greenland and NE Canada.
We release our final 2020 hurricane season outlook report to clients and we've increased the threat for the North Central Gulf of Mexico. We remain very concerned about a very active and destructive season with high risk South Florida and the Northeast our highest threat areas.
One contributing factor is a developing La Nina cycle among many other that suggest no wind shear this year in the Atlantic. Reduced SO2 pollution from the global pandemic also suggest much more solar radiation reaching the surface of the oceans allowing for more thunderstorms and ultimately more hurricanes in the Atlantic!
The 3rd Super Moon in a row will happen next week 7 May; it's also referred to as the flower moon and will appear 14% bigger and 30% brighter.