Captain's Log 27 Jan '24 Warm...but Pattern is Changing!

Captain's Log

27 Jan 2024: Happy Saturday! :)

This past week we shared our 2024 outlook with long time client Chuck Grom - Gordon Haskett Research Advisors. The outlook is VERY WET and that's a big drain on the quarter ahead. Our Financial Services Updates always highlight both the weather outlook and the influence on business, sales, etc. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

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Last week (21-27 Jan) across the World shows the retreating Polar Vortex with the U.S. trending +5.5F warmer than last year, warmest in 7 years and 4th warmest of the past 33 years. Rainfall was up +56% over last year making it the #1 wettest in several decades. China was the cold spot, while the U.K. was the hot spot. The World overall was the wettest in 22 year - typical El Niño.

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The retreating Polar Vortex is strong and symmetrical at the North Pole which pulls the Arctic air well North allowing for a warming trend in the middle latitudes. But signs of a wobble back toward the U.S. for middle February into early March so Winter is not over!

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The wt360 U.S. snowfall index shows the very snowy middle January period which was the coldest/snowiest in 30 years and now a lull in the cold/snow. But by middle February those snowy trends are very likely to return, especially in the East.

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This week (28 Jan - 3 Feb) shows the mild/wet trends with the U.S. trending +12F warmer than last year, warmest in 18 years and 2nd warmest of the past 33. Rainfall up +11% over last year and 11th wettest of the past 33 years. Flooding is going to become a very big problem in the Northeast in the weeks and months ahead. Groundhog Day is 2 February (Friday)...wt360 says 6-more weeks of cold/snow returning!

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The 6-day snowfall outlook (27 Jan - 1 Feb) shows the snowy spots in New England and the Sierras of California, but only 20% of the U.S. will be impacted by snow.

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Next week (4-10 Feb) shows the evolving weather pattern with colder and snowier weather moving into the West and the retreating extreme warmth. National temperatures trend -2.8F colder than last year, but still 7th warmest of the past 33 years. Rainfall up +71% over last year, wettest in 4 years and 4th wettest in 33 years. Increasing threats for bigger snowstorms that will eventually head East.

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The World 2-week outlook (28 Jan - 10 Feb) is a little misleading as it combines the very warm week this week and a cooling trend next week in the U.S.

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World 2-week snowfall is particularly heavy in Western Russia, Alaska, Northeast Canada and the Western U.S.

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For our FarmCast customers, our 2024 annual Ag outlook video will be sent to you this week. The theme will be WET, SEVERE but a strong crop year for most. For more information on our Ag FarmCast product - watch the video.

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Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out