Captain's Log 27 May '23 Generally Cooler & Drier YOY Pattern

Captain's Log
27 May 2023: Happy Saturday! :)

We hope you're having a great Memorial Day weekend as we honor and remember those that paid the ultimate sacrifice for the freedoms we have. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

LOG 1-min

A recap of the 4-week retail calendar May (30 Apr - 27 May) shows the U.S. trending -0.9F cooler than last year and 16th warmest of the past 38 years. It was a tale of two halves with the South and East trending cooler, while the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies had near record heat. This was an overall negative trend for hot Spring seasonal categories, so a soft month for retail seasonal sales. Rainfall was down -26% vs last year, least in 16 years and 8th driest of the past 38 years nationally. Dry weather is usually favorable for outdoor activities benefiting store traffic, especially in-dining restaurant, pool chemicals, lawn and garden categories and allergy.

LOG 4-min

For the World, May was generally cooler and wetter across Europe which is again a negative for overall Spring retail sales. Southwest Russia was the warmer/drier spot while cool and dry Fall weather was benefiting Australia cool seasonal category sales.

LOG 3-min

Tornadoes slowed down with the drier pattern and only 12 this past week. Year to date we're still +12% above average, +2% more than last year and most in 4 years. This activity should increase again in middle June and July as a wetter pattern returns.

LOG 2-min

Last week (21-27 May) across the World shows the U.S. trending +0.6F warmer than last year but still 12th coolest of the past 38 years with below average national temperatures. The hot spot was the North Central Plains. Rainfall was down -70% vs last year making it the #1 driest end to the retail May in over 38 years. Overall this was a favorable week for retail sales, but suppressed along the East Coast. Much of the World had drier trends benefiting outdoor activities.

log 9

This week (28 May - 3 June) shows the same general theme of warm North Central and New England, while the East Coast and South trending cooler. The U.S. overall trends +0.5F warmer than last year, warmest in 3 years and 10th warmest of the past 38 years but again the East Coast and South are the less favorable areas for YOY growth with seasonal categories. Rainfall -48% drier than last year, driest in 12 years and 2nd driest in 38 years. This dry trend should begin to flip in middle June and into July. The drought in the Southwest Plains is getting much needed rain where the season is now well above average after several years of drought.

LOG 6-min

Next week (4-10 June) shows a return to cooler weather with the U.S. trending -1.5F cooler than last year, coolest in 4 years and 11th coolest in 38 years with below average national temperatures. Rainfall again very dry trending -51% drier than last year, driest in 35 years and 2nd driest of the past 38. This benefits grass allergy medications, garden irrigation and pool chemicals. Hot categories like AC will be soft compared to the past couple years that were very strong for AC demand (2021 #1 hottest).

LOG 7-min

These cooler trends look to continue through the 5-week retail June. The middle April period around Easter was by far the strongest period for Spring seasonal sales with recent holiday's trending cooler YOY.

LOG 5-min

The World 2-week outlook (28 May - 10 June) shows favorable trends across Canada and the Northern tier of the U.S. while it's cooler for the Southeast U.S. and Eastern Europe. Hot and Dry weather continues for China and India where drought will develop impacting crops in the region.

LOG 8-min

We hope you have a great Memorial Day weekend, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out.