Captain's Log 29 Jun '20 Year-Ahead Weather & Sales Forecasting

Captain's Log

Happy Monday! :)

Can you believe June is almost over? That means the retail Q2 (May - July) is down the home stretch and it's been a better June than May. July will be up and down with similar temperatures to last year but wetter. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

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Our Power of 1 Degree® technology can quantify weather's influence on your sales and then project those sales everywhere on Earth by zip code or every mile on Earth...and it does it in 30 seconds! Our statistical methodology uses a trillion x trillion x billion calculations along with 24 climate cycles to project temperature, rainfall and snowfall trends every mile on Earth (32 million locations) but also weekly sales projections for over 10,000 categories. The outputs don't look like your TV weatherperson's forecast but do allow for PROACTIVE vs REACTIVE planning since our forecasts don't change once issued!

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Looking at this Saturday 4th of July and applying the Power of 1 Degree to a category like AC/Fans we some big difference across the country. In Billings MT as an example, temperatures go from 79F last year to 90F this year suggesting +165% increase in Fan/AC sales, 77% increase in Suncare sales, 55% increase in pest control categories, +44% for pool supplies, +11% for beer, beverages, ice cream and allergy medications.

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Conversely in New York City it will be 11 degrees cooler going from 93 last year to 82 this year suggesting a bigger decrease in YOY sales for many seasonal items.

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One of the 24 climate cycles we factor in is La Nina and that's developed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We expect this to create much more widespread dry to drought-like conditions and we're already seeing that.

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This time last year only 10% of the country had dry-drought conditions, near historic low with every wet conditions, and now 45% of the country has dry-drought conditions. We expect this to expand to 54% by Spring 2021 next year.

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This week (29 June - 5 July) shows very cold conditions the West, especially the Rocky Mountains with some higher elevation snow, but that will quickly turn much warmer by the 4th of July weekend. Overall the U.S. tends -0.5F cooler than last year and coolest in 4 years for the nation as a whole, but that's still the 6th warmest of the past 35 years. Rainfall is the wettest in 3 years and 17th wettest in 35 years, a tad above average.

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Dust from the Sahara Africa storm will still plague the South Central U.S. and parts of the Southeast again this week.

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Next week (6-12 July) show a warmer pattern with national temperatures trending 1.3F warmer than last year and 2nd warmest in 35 years. Rainfall is the wettest in 3 years and 5th wettest in 35 years for the nation as a whole.

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The 2-week (29 June - 12 July) year-over-year World temperature trends show warmer YOY conditions across much of North America but cooler in Europe, Southern Brazil, South Africa and Australia.

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Have a great 4th of July Independence Day weekend and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)