Captain's Log 3 February 2020 Monday

Captain's Log

Happy Monday! :) Especially happy if you like the Kansas City Chiefs (31 to 20 win over San Francisco in the Super Bowl) or the outlook from Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil - EARLY SPRING!

Maybe Phil checked out wt360's warm Spring outlook or NOAA's revised February outlook suggesting a warmer February for most of us before making his prediction. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.


We are not fans of Physics/Analog based methodologies or groundhogs to predict longer term weather trends as the method is a moving, ever changing target making business planning impossible. Notice the pretty significant change in NOAA's outlook from middle January to late January for February (maps below).


Despite being a year ahead, our long range forecasts (blue line in the chart above) frequently out perform these NOAA month ahead outlooks (orange line) about 83% of the time of the past 11+ years.

Our worldwide March outlook has been on our home page for many months now but soon you'll see our November 2020 outlook! One cool feature on the home page is our March sales expectations for some seasonal categories around the world and a weather-sales ticker near the top that shows today's weather trends vs a year ago and what it means for seasonal items.


If you're excited to hear about our warmer Spring outlook, check out our vacation planner at This fun widget allows you to pick any location in the world (see spinning globe) or enter your city followed by your ideal vacation weather. In the example above we chose Orlando, Florida, 80F temps and sunny skies, hit GO and the 3 best weeks for those conditions are highlighted - EARLIEST, BEST, 2ND BEST. This is based on statistical, 24 climate cycle trends (trillions upon trillions of calculations) so put the odds in your favor for better weather on your next vacation.

Snow cover this morning was again well below average with just 28% of the country blanketed in snow, 4th least in 17 years. Winter (1 Dec - 3 Feb) snowfall across the U.S. is trending least in 8 years, 22% less than average and 9% less than last year.


The 6-day snowfall outlook shows some Deep South snow in Texas this week and then a chance for some light snow in the Northeast. The next chance for some snow in the coastal Northeast is around the 13th. Middle February is statistically a very snowy period in the East but we're running out of time snow lovers.


This week (3-9 February) the nation looks to trend +1.8F warmer than last year, 8th warmest in 35 years, wettest in 10 years, 2nd wettest in 35 years with snowfall up +52% over last year and 6th most in 35 years.


Next week (10-16 February) shows a couple shots of cold air but again a transient pattern with big warm ups ahead of these fronts. Despite the glancing shots of cold weather, the nation still trends +4.6F warmer than last year and 6th warmest in 35 years. A stormy pattern with the risk of severe weather in the Southeast. Snowfall down 22% vs last year but still likely to be above average with a potential Valentine's Day storm in the East.


Right after the groundhog said, "EARLY SPRING" we had an inch of snow making the little Captain Angelina Kirk pretty happy. See the full video for her happy dance. Only 8" here locally so we're snow deprived for sure.

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin

-Kirk out