Captain's Log 30 Sep '23 Warm/Dry Start to October

Captain's Log
30 Sep '23: Happy Saturday. :)

El Niño continues to strengthen with a peak late this Fall and then rapid weakening with La Niña again likely this time next year. This rapid cycle change will make for some chaotic weather over the next year. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

log 1-min

While U.S. wildfire acres burned is still down near historic lows trending -61% below average, least in over 29 years, this won't last into 2024 with a much more active season expected in the Continental U.S., upwards of 29% above average next year.

log 2-min

Drought stands at 56% of the U.S. in dry to drought phases, least in 4 years and just 3% above the average for this time of year (53%). Last year was near a 23-year high at 75%.

log 3-min

Tornadoes continue to trend the most in 4 years, up +23% vs last year, +10% above average with 1,325 events. This active trend very likely to continue again in 2024 with another fast start.

log 4-min

wt360's year-ahead hurricane season outlook of an above average season with highest threat areas in the Pan Handel of Florida, North Carolina and Nova Scotia verified with Idalia (FL), Ophelia (NC), Lee (Nova Scotia) and 13 Sub-Africa systems that remained fish storms not impacting land. Our early projection for next year is an extreme season with 21+ named storms and very high risk to the U.S.

log 5-min

The two systems in the Atlantic currently (TS Philippe and TS Rina) will make right turns and head toward the U.K. Every measure of activity in the Atlantic this year is above average per Colorado State University's data.

log 6-min

With the warmer start to Fall, the Flu season is likely to have a much later more traditional peak in late January - early February as opposed to late November last year. Australia is always a good predictor of our season and they too had half the # of cases with a later peak with Type A the predominant variant. The U.S. had type A last year so that too bodes well since many will have antibodies to that strain. This is a minor piece of good news for the holiday shopping season this year after the intense season last year.

log 7-min

Last Week (24-30 Sep) across the World shows HOT which is very common with El Niño Falls. The U.S. trended +4.8F warmer than last year and #1 hottest in over 38+ years. Rainfall was down -11% vs last year but still 18th wettest of the past 38 years with slightly below average national rainfall. Don't tell that to folks in New York City that were flooded with 7" of rain Friday in just a couple hours. Canada, Europe and Russia were also the #1 warmest in over 38 years. These are very unfavorable trends for retail seasonal sales as cold and wet weather always leads to higher demand for seasonal categories in the Fall.

log 8-min

This Week (1-7 Oct) shows more of the same with the U.S. trending +6.1F warmer than last year, 2nd warmest in 38 years. 70s and 80s as far north as the Midwest and Northeast. Rainfall up +18% vs last year but still 5th driest of the past 38 years. Much needed rain for the parched South-Central U.S. These are very negative trends for the week before Columbus Day.

log 9-min

Next week (8-14 Oct) a brief period of cooler weather will head into the East while a big warm surge develops for the Western 2/3rds of the country. The U.S. overall trends +1.7F warmer than last year and 5th warmest of the past 38 years. Rainfall -51% less than last year, least in 8 years and 4th least in 38 years. Much needed rainfall for California will end the wildfire season early. Some minor uptick in seasonal sales in the West and East Coast, but not as good as last year.

log 10-min

The World 2-week outlook (1-14 Oct) shows a continuation of the global warm trends which will lead to widespread lower Fall sales. Consumable Summer categories like cold beverages, outdoor dining and Fall Garden categories will do better.

log 11-min

This week we're speaking with another financial services clients highlighting the high risk Q3-Q4 weather trends with the warmer Fall but then colder and much snowier Winter. The late Dec - April colder snowier period will help to clear out Winter seasonal merchandise but at a steeper markdown, so these trends are "out-of-sync" with the desired trend of a cold/wet Fall and the milder/drier Winter. wt360's store and DC level forecasts by week, year-ahead for thousands of categories provide much more specific weather and sales trends and we do it in seconds!

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If you like the threat of bigger snowstorms, Nor'easters, this is your year! wt360 expects the snowiest conditions in 10 years with the snowy pattern shifting to the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast this year with much less for the West. That's all we have to say about that 4-letter word SNOW. Clients already have a monthly and weekly entire season ahead forecast.

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Have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out