Captain's Log 4 Nov '23 Much Warmer than Last Year

Captain's Log
4 Nov 2023: Happy Saturday! :)

A busy event week ahead with Daylight Savings Time ending late tonight, Election Day Tuesday and Veteran Day's Saturday. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

LOG 1-min

For over 22 years, Weather Trends International, more affectionately known as weathertrends360, we've been predicting the weather a YEAR-AHEAD across 32 million locations (every 1 mile) on Earth but more importantly business outcomes.

This allows big businesses in retail, supply, financial services, pharma, ag and YOU to make lower risk high return decision on inventory, allocation, marketing timing, advertising timing, equity performance, crop expectations, disease trends, etc. a YEAR-AHEAD.

End commercial, now back to the forecast. :)

LOG 2-min

Can you believe it's already time to turn the clocks back tonight at 2am? Not happy about the end of Daylight Savings Time.

LOG 3-min

Snow lovers won't be happy with the early November snow outlook after a snowy end to October. Snow cover this morning stands at 8% of the U.S. vs 16% last year and this will shrink further into middle November with much hotter weather ahead.

LOG 4-min

The 6-day outlook (4-9 Nov) shows -86% less snowfall than last year, 7th least in 38 years and -82% below average. Some for the high elevations of the Rockies and Maine.

LOG 5-min

The 2-week (4-18 Nov) global snowfall outlook shows Siberia, NE China and Northeast Canada the snowier areas.

LOG 6-min

Last week (29 Oct - 4 Nov) across the World shows the U.S. trending a very significant -9.8F colder than last year, coldest in 4 years and 8th coldest of the past 38 years. This was the greatest weekly change toward colder weather since Christmas last year. These are excellent trends for strong seasonal merchandise sales. Rainfall was -44% vs last year and 12th driest of the past 38 years while snowfall was up +52% vs last year, most in 4 years and 17th most in 38 years. Canada was also favorable for seasonal merchandise sales. The U.K. was hit by a major storm with strong winds making it the #1 wettest in over 38 years. Continued very dry in Australia with the driest Spring in over 38 years.

LOG 7-min

The other positive news due to the much warmer Fall so far is a much slower start to the Flu season as predicted by wt360. Flu cases are -40% vs last year and -8% below baseline. Middle November was brutally cold last year leading to the very early peak in cases by Thanksgiving. This year a January spike is much more likely, especially with the very warm weather ahead for middle November.

LOG 8-min

This week (5-11 Nov) shows a dramatic warming trend with the U.S. trending +2.2F warmer than last year, warmest in 18 years and 2nd warmest in 38 years with much above average national temperatures. The few cool spots are in New England and part of California. Rainfall -60% vs last year, driest in 7 years and 8th driest of the past 38. Snowfall down a whopping -92% vs last year, least in 7 years and 4th least in 38. These are very unfavorable trends for retail seasonal sales, but the most improved region is the Northeast.

LOG 9-min

Next week (12-18 Nov) shows a HUGE CHANGE toward much warmer YOY weather with national temperatures trending +14.1F warmer than a year ago. This is the greatest change toward much warmer weather in 3 years and 8 months! A big negative for retail seasonal sales. Rainfall up +157% vs last year, most in 8 years and 3rd most in 38 while snowfall is down -96% vs LY, least in 24 years and 2nd least in 38.

LOG 10-min

The World 2-week outlook (5-18 Nov) is showing the atmospheric response to the strong El Nino with generally warm and wet trends for many.

We hope you have a great week ahead, and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out (USAF Gulf War Veteran 1989-1999)