Captain's Log 6 May '23 A Big Warming Trend

Captain's Log
6 May '23: Happy SUNNY Saturday! :)

We've had 13 straight days with below average temperatures here in the Northeast and the #1 wettest 2-week period in 38 years. I think we had at least 8 rainbows during this stretch of unsettled weather, everyone's excited a bout a warmer/drier pattern just in time for Mother's Day. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.

LOG 1-min

Last week (30 Apr - 6 May) across the World shows the U.S. trending -2.5F colder than last year, coldest in 3 years and 8th coldest of the past 38 years with below average national temperatures. The bright spot for Spring seasonal sales was the Pacific Northwest, the East Coast least favorable. Rainfall was -37% drier than last year, driest in 3 years and 16th driest of the past 38 years. The Heartland was dry allowing farmers a quick pace for getting crops in the ground. India was the coldest in 38+ years while Canada was the warmest in 7 years.

LOG 2-min

With the evolving pattern of warmer weather Northwest and cooler Southeast the triggers for severe weather/tornadoes were greatly diminished with only 10 tornadoes over the past week. Season to date stands at 603 which is still +14% above average and in the top 20% of history.

LOG 4-min

This week (7-13 May) before Mother's Day weekend shows the big warming trend as the heat moves East. For the U.S. overall, the week trends +0.4F warmer than last year, warmest in 5 years and 4th warmest of the past 38 years with much above average national temperatures. Rainfall up +43% vs last year but still 12th driest in 38 years and below average nationally. This should be a strong pent-up demand sales week for Spring seasonal and garden merchandise, especially in the East. Much needed rainfall for the South Central U.S. where drought continues. Currently 45% of the country is in dry to drought phases which is now wetter than average for the first time in a couple years! This is a huge improvement when 85% of the country was in dry to drought phases at the peak back in early November 2022.

LOG 5-min

Mother's Day Weekend (13-14) shows even better conditions with nearly nationwide above average temperatures and the warmest Mother's Day in 19 years, 2nd hottest in 38 years. There have been 4 straight colder than average Mother's Day so again this is a big plus for retailers and seasonal suppliers with strong sales gains and the best sales trends since middle April - Easter week. Rainfall up, but most of that is in West Texas where they desperately need rain.

LOG 6-min

Next week (14-20 May) shows the heat rebuilding in the Northwest with some moderation in temperatures for the East. Texas remains the cooler and wet spot. For the U.S. overall, temperatures trend similar to last year but still 4th warmest of the past 38 years with much above average national temperatures. Rainfall down -21% vs last year, least in 9 years and 5th least in 38 years nationally. Warm and Dry trends are the most favorable conditions for retail seasonal sales and store traffic this time of year, so a plus!

LOG 7-min

The World 2-week outlook (7-20 May) shows the building warmth across North America. Cooler across Central and Eastern Europe while India and China warm up and dry out.

Have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest and Linkedin.

- Captain Kirk out.