The Wall Street Journal had a story today "Expectations Rise for La Nina, Cooler Sister of El Nino Weather". NEWS FLASH....weathertrends360 said this would happen over 8 months ago. But before we talk La Nina let's look down South...way South in Brazil.
Brazil's Safrinha corn crop on the brink of popping and not that good stuff we like to eat in the movies. They've had one hurdle after another with their Soybean crop earlier this year with record heat and dry conditions during the growing season only to have floods right at harvest a couple months ago. Now their all-important Safrinha Corn Crop started off OK with hot weather and ample soil moisture only to have pollination take place during a near record hot and dry April.
The top 3 major corn producing areas in Brazil are down in the Southwest corner of the country in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Think of this region as the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt Iowa, Illinois, Missouri.
A scorching heat-wave just plagued the region (April 7-11th) with high temperatures of 92F to 97F and nighttime lows in the low to middle 70s. Not good in light of pollination. This map shows how April is likely to end up across Brazil with the corn regions highlighted in the Southwest.
Mato Grosso is the biggest Safrinha growing region in Brazil and the 2016 trends for April don't look good; hottest in 17 years, 2nd hottest on record and driest in 6 years with much below average rainfall. Not sure a cactus would like weather like this...certainly not pollinating corn.
A day-by-day summary and outlook shows just about every day trending over 90F in April across the three major growing areas. Notice the scorching heat-wave they just had last week with low to high 90F temps and nighttime temps in the 70s.
The next two weeks are record hot in 2 of the 3 regions so more suffering for local farmers.
For those of you that watched our Seeds of Success videos on crops around the world, you're not surprised by this as weathertrends360 warned of this last Fall. It's happening. Doesn't matter what they planted but rather what they produce and the production will be well below expectations come May and June when they harvest. The first of two commodity rally's this season. The pattern they've had here is eerily similarly to what we expect in the U.S. Corn Belt this season and next year. This is the start of a 2-year drought cycle across the Americas and a classic La Niña pattern along with 23 other climate cycles and statistics.
Seeds of Success Episode 1 - Year ahead U.S. Corn Belt outlook
Seeds of Success Episode 2 - Crops around the world
Seeds of Success Episode 3 - 2016 Hurricane Season
You don't need the government to officially say it's La Niña to have La Niña weather conditions set up as they're already starting to do. NOAA needs to see cold surface anomalies for 3 straight months before they declare it a La Niña so expect that by August. Again - the weather pattern will respond months before the government or academics utter La Niña is here. Just look below the surface of the entire Pacific Ocean and you'll see just how quickly this El Nino is collapsing (the big ones always do). All that blue water is -2C to -4C colder than normal water and it's just a 100 feet below the surface and moving up. The El Niño westerly winds have already turned easterly so the La Niña weather pattern is taking shape as we speak. Brazil will say it's already here.
Hope you saved some of your corn - much higher prices likely by late July and August! It's not what you PLANT...it's what you PRODUCE and Mother Nature is going to have a big say in that in 2016!
-Capt Kirk out.