It's been a wet year for the U.S. due in part to a weak El Nino event. World rainfall shows the tropics have already had over 100" of rain but the 35-40" in the South Central U.S. is excessive by U.S. standards. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW.
El Nino remains in a weak phase and likely to remain weak for the balance of the year.
Ocean temperatures show the weak El Nino combined with a weak negative AMO cycle (colder North Atlantic Ocean temperatures) which are just a couple of factors that will play into a weaker hurricane season than last year.
Dust off Africa and wind shear are other factors that will likely lead to a less active 2019 hurricane season.
Our high risk area for a land falling hurricane is still Southeast Florida, the Bahamas and Haiti.
This week (10-16 June)middle June period is very cold for the U.S. overall trending coldest in 24 years and 2nd coldest in 30 years! This will have a very big negative influence on hot Summer seasonal category sales like fans, AC, beverages, pool supplies, etc. It's also the wettest in 4 years and 5th wettest in 30 years. The hot spot remains the Pacific Northwest.
Father's Day Sunday (16 June) looks stormy for the Central U.S. and Florida with Dad's day trending coolest in 5 years, 13th coolest in 30 years and #1 wettest in 30 years.
Next week(17-23 June) still shows cooler trends, but not quite as extreme as this week. Rainfall remains excessive with more widespread flooding likely from Arkansas to Tennessee with 5"+ rainfall totals. For the U.S. overall the week trends the coolest in 5 years, 10th warmest in 30 years but #1 wettest once again.
With a rare warm and dry weekend in the Northeast, we took the little Angelina to the beach or "shore" as they prefer to say in New Jersey. Hysterical when she started singing "Daddy Shark doo doo doo doo..." A couple times she yelled shark...fortunately very few people were in the chilly water so no one was alarmed. ha