Happy Monday folks!
THIS WEEK (11-17 JULY)
starts off hot in the Central U.S. but downright cold in the Northwest (coolest in 22 years) with snow falling in the Rocky Mountains above 7,000feet (insanely low for this time of year). The Northeast is getting a bout of cooler fresh air as well with lower humidity. Midweek this cooler weather in the Northwest begins to move into the North Central U.S. as the heart of the cold begins racing toward Hudson's Bay Canada later in the week. Some areas from Kansas to Southeast Iowa could get some severe weather and hail as this cold front moves through. By the weekend a ridge of high pressure will rebuild in the Central U.S. with hot weather expanding from the South Central U.S. (Texas to Kansas) moving up into the Northern Plains over the weekend.
For the U.S. overall the week is the warmest in 4 years (6th warmest of the past 25 years) and driest in 13 years with 14% below average rainfall nationally.
NEXT WEEK (18-24 JULY)
It's been a long time since we've seen short range computer models (both US GFS and EURO) show a heat-wave of this magnitude for a prolonged week or more event. This looks to be a #1 hottest 3rd week in July in 121 years and eclipsing the record breaking year of 2012. National rainfall is the 2nd least in 28 years and 22% below average. By Monday 100F temps and 110F heat-indices will surge into the Central Plains from Kansas to South Dakota into Western Iowa. Mid-week temperatures as high as 105F to 112F are possible in Nebraska and low 100s in Western Iowa on strong southwest winds of 20-30mph. Heat indices likely to top 120F midweek in Nebraska and South Dakota.
With "Heat Domes" like this, aka simply a ridge of high pressure with sinking hot air, it won't take long for soil moisture to plunge into the 10% to 18% range for the Western Corn Belt. Evapotranspiration rates easily in the 0.50" per day with temps over 100 and strong winds. This is a critical pollination and kernel set period so while the Central Corn Belt may escape the worst of this event, TBD, 20% of the Corn Belt will bake putting a big dent in yields. Not to mention the many other areas struggling with excessive rainfall deficits in Michigan, the Northeast, the Deep South and some areas simply too much rain in Western KY, Southern IN so it all adds up to a below trend line yield this year for America's farmer. We still expect this to bring yields 8% to 13% lower than USDA estimates and that will create a major rally in light of Brazil being off 25% from April govt projections which translates to 551,600,000 million bushels lost due to their hot/dry weather during pollination. We expect the Brazil numbers to go a tad lower with next months near final harvest results.
This U.S. heat-wave, and the June weather, is exponentially more extreme than anything that happened in Brazil back in April so it should be a warning as to what we will see here come late Summer - Fall when yields start coming in. And we still expect August to be the hottest in 5 years and a top 10 hottest in 121 years for the U.S. overall. Just like Brazil, we too expect an early frost/freeze in September for these same areas that are likely to have a scorching heat wave next week. Parana Brazil had a week of 24-28F temps while their crop was maturing so that knocked off yields for an areas that escaped the hot/dry April.
For our retail and supply side customers - this hot pattern is great for significant year-over-year sales gains for almost every Summer seasonal category from suncare, beverage, pool chemicals, fruits/vegetables, AC/fans, Auto Battery failures, etc.
To see this event in motion visit our Interactive maps page. Soon you'll see very high resolution imagery with our interactive maps.
Hope you have a great week folks! - Capt Kirk out.