Happy Monday! :)
A bit of a flip flop in the weather pattern with winter finally making an appearance for parts of the West while the East is generally mild. There will be a few cold days in the East, but more warm days than cold. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.
Flooding rains are a concern for the South Central into the Ohio Valleyespecially with ice still covering some rivers there could be some ice jams in the weeks ahead. Ice on the Great Lakes is way above average at 69% coverage which is about 35% above average and way above last year's meager 13% coverage. Peak Ice years were in 2014 with 92.5% of the lakes covered (March) and 1979 when a whopping 94.7% were covered. Minimum year was 2002 when only 11.9% was covered. Snow cover across the U.S. is at 44%.
Snowfall over the next 6-days will shift to Central Rocky Mountains with some light snow late in the week for the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.
Winter to date snowfall has been heaviest right around the Great Lakes, especially downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. For the Eastern half of the U.S. snowfall from November 1st to 12 February has been 42% more than last year and 6.4% above average for the most snowfall in 4 years. The Western half of the U.S. has been polar opposite trending down 70% vs last year and 52% below average.
For the heating season (1 Nov to 12 Feb) it's been significantly colder than the past two seasons so don't be shocked when you get your electric bills trending 25% to 50% higher than a year ago in the Eastern half of the country. Heating Degree Days are up 25% over last year for the Eastern U.S. which is 5% above average while the Western U.S. is having one of the warmest Winter's in 30 years with heating demand down 16% vs last year and down 14% below average.
We still expect the pattern to flip back cold for the East for late February into at least the 3rd week of March so Winter is not over from the Midwest to Great Lakes and Northeast. In fact, we think there will be at least one major snow storm, bigger than anything we've had so far this season so keep the Winter gear ready.
We hope you have a great week! For daily updates follow us on Facebook and Twitter.
- Captain Kirk out.