Star Date 18 June 2019 Tuesday

Captain's Log

Happy Tuesday! :)

Thank you for your patience, we resolved all the issues with NOAA's GFS upgrade. They changed a cazillion things and of course didn't explicitly call out all the changes making for a nightmare weekend for weather IT teams trying to fix the mess. All good now. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.

If you thought last week was on the cool side nationally you are correct. The 2nd week of June ended up being the coolest 9-16 June period in 24 years and #1 wettest in 30+ years.Father's Day Sunday was the coolest in 15 years and again #1 wettest making the biggest change toward colder weather in over 30 years after 4 hot Father's Day in a row.


Spring (April - June) also made a wholesale change going from the 3rd warmest in 30 years for the 3-26 April period which included Easter but since 27 April it's been the coolest in 14 years nationally (high temperatures) and -4.8F colder than last year. Nearly everyday since late April has trended colder YOY which is a huge negative trend for hot seasonal categories.


Recall that our Power of 1 Degree® on seasonal sales shows every 1F hotter in Spring YOY brings significant increases in sales, but the downside is also true. Taking the 5F colder trend multiplying by these Power of 1 Degrees shows cold beverage sales off 5% or more, apparel -15% and AC's down a whopping 50% or more.


Hot 90ºF days across the U.S. are down a whopping 38% from last year, below average and the greatest year-0ver-year drop in 22 years! A big negative for hot seasonal category sales which Weather Trends warned about a year in advance. :)


This week (18-24 June) continues the cooler trends but the pattern is starting to change a bit. The Western half of the U.S. will get a big cool down with the U.S. overall trending coolest in 15 years and 4th coldest in 30 years and again #1 wettest with more rain where we don't need it.


Next week (25 June - 1 July) Warmth returns to the East but the GFS is likely too hot and the Euro is likely too cold so somewhere in the middle is a better guesstimate. Nationally it's still a bit cooler than last year but not as extreme trending 12th warmest of the past 30 years but again #1 wet.


If you haven't been to Kalahari Resort in the Pocono's it's worth the trip! It's the biggest indoor water park in the country and since the little Angelina Kirk loves EVERYTHING WATER, Daddy's little Hawaiian girl for sure, it's a family favorite.


And the little one has been practicing every day for overtwo weeks now trying to master singing the Star Spangled Banner...did we say she's 3! And she loves everything and anything American Flag. See video for her singing debut. :)


With that have a great week and don't forget to follow us on social media.Facebook,Twitter,YouTube,PinterestandLinkedin

- Captain Kirk out.