Happy 2019! :)
In today's video we discuss the next 8 weeks and signs of a pattern change. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW
Flu activity this year is much less rampant than last year with 30 states reporting regional or widespread outbreaks vs 49 states last year.
THIS WEEK (2-8 January) is pretty warm across most of North America with the U.S. overall trending warmest in 7 years and 5th warmest of the past 30 years. Rainfall is the wettest in 2 years, 6th wettest in 30 years continuing the very soggy trends from 2018. National snowfall is the least in 6 years.
NEXT WEEK (9-15 January) shows signs of a pattern change which was expected in our year-ahead outlooks. Most of Canada will have a 3o to 50 degree plunge in temperatures with the Northeast U.S. and the Southwest also the colder spots in the U.S. While atmospheric conditions have not been responding as they normally do with a weak central El Nino and MJO cycles, that should change for the later half of January with a return to cold and snow. For the U.S. overall, the 2nd week of January is the coolest in 3 years, 12th warmest in 30 years, driest in 4 years and least snow in 2 years.
The big warm up for late December into early January was expected with wt360's year-ahead forecast showing this big change. But, the pattern should revert back to cold and snow for a 7 week stretch from middle January into early March.
There is a strong correlation to early season snowfall, like we had in November in the East, to an overall above average snowy Winter. While November was off the charts snowy nationally, December flip flopped to the other extreme trending down 53% from a year ago.
Snow cover across the U.S. stands at 41% which is near average and near last year. For North America overall snow cover is 3% above average and 16th most of the past 52 years.
The 2-week modeled snowfall outlook shows signs of snow returning to the interior Northeast and possibly just west of the big NE cities (west of I-95) next week. Hang in there Northeast snow lovers...still highly confident that we'll end up with a much above average snowy season.
We had a wonderful Christmas holiday and hope you did as well despite the green Christmas vs white Christmas.
And more signs of hope as the snow geese migrating from the Arctic have invaded Eastern PA so a sign of things to come!
Have a great short week and don't forget to follow us on social media for frequent updates.Facebook,Twitter,YouTube,PinterestandLinkedin
- Captain Kirk out.