COO Chief Forecaster Rich Woolley technical discussion on the current ENSO, MJO cycles that should team up for a big weather pattern shift going into early January...yes he says POLAR VORTEX!
17 Dec 2018 Happy Monday. :)
The 1 November to 11 December period was the coldest in 18 years, 3rd coldest in 30 years and snowiest in 13 years. That's the good news if you like cold and snow. CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW.
National temperature trends since 1 November show the cold end to Fall and beginning of December, late month thaw and then colder again as we transition into January and all of February.
The front half of December was colder than last year, below average temperatures for the US. overall, wettest in 9 years (much above average) but least snow in 3 years nationally despite the big snow storm in the Middle Atlantic.
The bad news is the next couple weeks will trend warmest in 3 years with a couple week thaw for the U.S. overall.
This is good news for retail store traffic and Christmas gift sales, but not good if you like cold/snow. There are a couple shots of colder air right before Christmas, but then milder again after Christmas before the pattern should reset going into early and especially middle January. Right now it looks as though only 20% to 25% of the U.S. will have a white Christmas.